Six different events
| Market wording | Event that needs a rule |
|---|---|
| Penalty awarded | Referee decision that remains valid under settlement rules |
| Penalty taken | A qualifying kick is attempted |
| Penalty scored | The kick results in a qualifying goal |
| Penalty missed | The kick does not produce a goal under the product definition |
| Penalty saved | Goalkeeper is credited with a save under the named source |
| Player to score a penalty | Named player converts a qualifying penalty and satisfies participation rules |
The IFAB Law 14 defines the on-field penalty-kick procedure, infringements, retakes, and restarts. A betting rule still determines which stage and data record settles the product.
Awarded is not scored
If a penalty is awarded and the kick is saved, an awarded-penalty selection can win while a penalty-to-be-scored selection loses. If a decision is reversed before the kick, settlement depends on whether the product counts the initial signal or the final official decision. Betfair's current football rules provide one operator reference for VAR and football settlement.
Missed and saved are not synonyms
A shot wide, against the post, or over the bar can be a miss without a goalkeeper save. A saved penalty requires the named data or product definition to credit the goalkeeper. Do not derive a saved-penalty result from no goal alone.
Retakes create another distinction. The football law can require a kick to be retaken after an infringement. The betting market must say whether the original attempt, the completed retake, or another official record counts.
Regulation penalties versus shoot-outs
Penalty shoot-outs determine a match after a draw under competition rules. The IFAB Law 10 separates kicks from the penalty mark from normal match play. A regulation-time penalty market should not be assumed to include a shoot-out; the accepted product must state that scope.
Settlement scenarios
| Scenario | Awarded? | Scored? | Saved? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Penalty converted | Yes | Yes | No |
| Goalkeeper saves valid kick | Yes | No | Yes under credited-save rule |
| Valid kick hits post and stays out | Yes | No | No under a pure save definition |
| Initial award overturned before kick | Follow product rule | No | No |
| Shoot-out conversion | Only if shoot-outs included | Only if included | Only if included |
A complete pre-bet record
- Copy the exact event verb: awarded, taken, scored, missed, saved, or converted by player.
- Confirm regulation time, extra time, and shoot-out scope.
- Save the final-decision and VAR wording.
- Save the retake rule.
- For player markets, save participation and non-runner treatment.
- Record the settlement source and correction period.
Model the event as a state machine
Use explicit transitions: incident, referee award, review, final award, nominated kicker, kick taken, infringement, retake decision, final attempt, and credited outcome. Keep the event open until the product's settlement rule reaches its terminal state. This prevents an initial award or saved attempt from being counted after a reversal or required retake.
Check at least these paths: award and score; award and goalkeeper save; award and shot off target; award overturned before a kick; kick retaken and scored; kick retaken and missed; player replaced before taking it; and shoot-out kick excluded from a regulation market. Record which path wins each distinct product.
Reconcile the final operator result with the official match report and named data feed, but retain every provisional transition. A historical dataset containing only converted penalties cannot support an awarded, missed, or saved market because it has removed the denominator and the alternative settlement states.
Next step
Use Alternative Betting Markets for the next part of this topic.
Continue learning
- Next guide: Football Player Props
- Related guide: Half-Time/Full-Time Betting
Assumptions and limitations
This guide explains event distinctions and does not estimate a penalty probability. DraftKings' soccer rules and Betfair are current operator examples. The accepted market wording controls abandoned matches, awarded results, retakes, VAR, data corrections, and shoot-outs.
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