Outright describes horizon, not one payoff
| Market | Outcome to define |
|---|---|
| Competition winner | Official winner under competition and operator rules |
| Top finish | Named finishing positions and tie treatment |
| Qualification | Which stage or next competition qualifies |
| Promotion or relegation | Direct places, play-offs, deductions, and administrative decisions |
| Group winner | Group table and tie-break rules |
| Each-way outright | Separate win and place stakes under stated place terms |
Betfair's current football rules provide one operator example of tournament, relegation, and top-scorer settlement. Competition rules remain a separate source of truth.
Price the complete field
For an illustrative complete six-selection winner field at decimal prices 2.50, 4.00, 6.00, 10.00, 15.00, and 21.00:
Raw implied total = (1 / 2.50) + (1 / 4) + (1 / 6) + (1 / 10) + (1 / 15) + (1 / 21) = 1.030952
Illustrative overround = (1.030952 - 1) * 100 = 3.0952
The example works only because the six selections are declared to be the complete field. A partial list cannot support a complete-market overround.
Each-way payoff example
Suppose an explicitly illustrative each-way bet is GBP 10 win plus GBP 10 place at win odds 9.00, with place terms of one quarter of the win-odds profit. The place decimal price is:
Place decimal price = 1 + ((9 - 1) / 4) = 3
If the selection wins, both parts win:
Total gross return = (10 * 9) + (10 * 3) = 120
Net profit = 120 - 20 = 100
If it places without winning, the win part loses and the place part returns GBP 30:
Net result = 30 - 20 = 10
Actual place fractions, place counts, dead heats, and eligibility come from the accepted terms; the example is illustrative rather than a live offer.
Rules can change during the holding period
Long-horizon analysis needs a dated competition rule and operator rule. FIFA's legal-document portal illustrates official publication and archiving of governing documents, while each competition can have its own current regulations. Retain the edition used at the decision date.
Relevant changes include participant withdrawal, replacement, points deductions, format changes, venue changes, incomplete seasons, play-offs, awarded matches, and administrative decisions. The operator contract must state which authority and date settle the bet.
Capital and price record
Record the stake date, expected settlement date, accepted price, available stake, cash lock-up, cash-out transactions, and final settlement. Comparing a six-month outright with a short match bet by raw return alone ignores time at risk and changing information.
Expected value still needs mutually exclusive outcomes and net payoffs. OpenStax's expected-value chapter supplies the weighted-payoff principle; it does not validate a season forecast.
Maintenance checklist
- Preserve the complete participant field and Other treatment.
- Store official competition rules and operator rules by edition.
- Record each-way, dead-heat, deduction, play-off, and withdrawal terms.
- Set an as-of date and review after material competition changes.
- Reconcile cash-out and partial settlement separately.
- Do not publish current picks without a maintainable first-party data source.
Next step
Use Relegation Betting for the next part of this topic.
Continue learning
- Next guide: Football Penalty Markets
- Related guide: Football Player Props
Assumptions and limitations
The field, prices, and each-way terms are illustrative. DraftKings' soccer rules and Betfair are operator examples. This page contains no current ranking or recommendation and should not substitute for the accepted product and competition documents.
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