Archived record: the tournament has finished. Evidence was rechecked on 20 August 2026 against FIFA's completed knockout record and final report. The page preserves the confirmed result and path-and-price lessons; it does not publish current prices or advice.
The official bracket and results archive recorded how every completed round changed the remaining championship paths. The retrospective method converts those paths into conditional states while keeping favourites and unsupported predictions out of the analysis.
Final result and outcome-bias check
FIFA's completed knockout record confirms Spain as champion after a 1-0 final win over Argentina. The final report records Ferran Torres's 106th-minute goal and the extra-time result.
The trophy settles the sporting outcome, not whether an earlier outright was well priced. Preserve the probability, uncertainty, full comparison market and bracket known at the original timestamp. Do not increase an archived Spain estimate because Spain later won, or describe every losing model as poor solely because its most likely single outcome did not occur.
Outright record
| Layer | Required evidence |
|---|---|
| Tournament state | Official bracket, remaining matches, venue and kickoff retrieval time |
| Settlement | Champion definition, withdrawal or disqualification rule, correction source |
| Path | Conditional opponents or branches without assuming one fixed route |
| Team evidence | Availability, rest, travel, and model inputs at a stated cutoff |
| Forecast | Conditional probabilities, method version, uncertainty, comparison baseline |
| Market | Every quoted team, price timestamp, requested and accepted price |
| Exposure | Stake, possible loss, related match positions, cash-out or hedge terms |
FIFA's format guide documents the 12-group structure and progression into the Round of 32. During a live knockout tournament, the remaining path changes after each result.
Worked conditional path
Assume a hypothetical team must win two remaining knockout matches. A model assigns a 0.60 chance to advancing from the first and, conditional on that event and a specified opponent branch, a 0.55 chance to winning the second.
- model championship probability = 0.60 * 0.55 = 0.33, or 33%;
- model-equivalent decimal price before margin = 1 / 0.33 = approximately 3.03;
- a hypothetical offered price of 3.20 has raw implied share = 1 / 3.20 = 31.25%.
This is a calculation from assumed probabilities, not a forecast. Conditional path probabilities must reflect the branch being evaluated. OpenStax distinguishes conditional and independent probability relationships.
If the 0.33 model estimate were accurate and all settlement assumptions held, the illustrative expected net value per GBP 1 at 3.20 would be (0.33 * GBP 2.20) + (0.67 * -GBP 1) = GBP 0.056. Expected value is a probability-weighted average, not a guaranteed outcome. The uncertain model probability is the difficult part.
Complete market comparison
Raw implied share for one team is not the market margin. Capture every quoted team at the same timestamp, calculate 1 / odds for each, then add the shares. Suspended, eliminated, stale, or unavailable entries must be resolved rather than silently omitted.
Match result is not tournament winner
A team can draw a knockout match after regulation time and still become champion through extra time or penalties. IFAB Law 10 separates a drawn match from permitted winner-determination procedures. DraftKings' soccer rules are one operator example of match and tournament settlement. Save the outright contract, not only the team name.
Verification checklist
- Timestamp the official bracket and each price.
- Define the champion settlement event.
- Draw every remaining opponent branch.
- Label conditional probabilities and uncertainty.
- Include every active team when calculating overround.
- Reconcile requested and accepted prices.
- Add related match and player positions to total exposure.
Next step
Use How To Bet On World Cup 2026 for the next part of this topic.
Continue learning
- Next guide: 1X2 Betting Explained
- Related guide: Each-Way Football Betting
Assumptions and limitations
The worked team, probabilities and prices are hypothetical; Spain's final result is factual. This page makes no current prediction. Legal access, product rules and archived prices vary by location and operator, and an individual ticket requires its original accepted terms.
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