Last updated: 16 May 2026. Match takes place Sunday 24 May, 3pm kick-off.

The Situation

Liverpool are top of the Premier League. Seventy-nine points from 36 games. Twenty-four wins, seven draws, five defeats. A goal difference of plus 42. Two games left. The thing is, this is not a complicated picture. They need results. They know it. Everyone knows it.

The team directly below them has 77 points from the same number of games. Two points is nothing. One slip and this title race goes to the final day. Liverpool cannot afford to treat Sunday as a formality. Nobody at this level should ever treat anything as a formality. That attitude killed more title bids than any opponent ever did.

What Liverpool Have Done This Season

Twenty-four wins. Sixty-eight goals scored. Twenty-six conceded. That is a defensive record worth respecting. They have been hard to beat and clinical when it matters. The numbers are the numbers. You do not finish 36 games with a plus 42 goal difference by accident. That takes standards maintained over ten months.

Listen, I am not here to throw a parade. Two points clear with two games left is a lead, not a title. They have earned the right to win it. Now they have to go and do it.

What Brentford Bring

Brentford sit 13th. Forty-six points. Thirteen wins, seven draws, sixteen defeats. Fifty goals scored, fifty-two conceded. Mid-table. Safe. No meaningful stakes left in this game for them on the surface.

The thing is, that is exactly when a side like Brentford can be dangerous. No pressure. Nothing to lose. Their players can go to Anfield and play with freedom. I have seen more upsets caused by teams with nothing to play for than I care to remember. Complacency from the top side, liberation from the bottom one. It is a combination that bites you.

Brentford have scored fifty goals this season. They are not toothless. They compete. They press. They have the basics in order. You do not dismiss them because the league table says they are mid-table. You respect the opposition and you impose yourself from the first minute. That is the only correct approach.

The Prediction

The model gives Liverpool a 67.3% probability of winning this match. Confidence rating of 67. I do not need a model to tell me Liverpool should win at home with a title on the line, but I will say this: 67% means there is a real chance this goes wrong. That is not a certainty. That is a probability. Players decide probabilities, not machines.

Both teams are expected to score, with a 55% chance of that happening. Over 2.5 goals is flagged at 62%. Liverpool are also favoured at half-time. That half-time detail matters. It tells you Liverpool are expected to set the tone early. If they do not, if they allow Brentford to sit in and frustrate them, this becomes a different and uncomfortable afternoon.

My Take

Liverpool to win. That is my call. Not because a model told me. Because they are the better side, they are at home, and the desire to win a title concentrates minds. A squad that has won 24 league games this season knows how to compete. They have demonstrated accountability all year. That does not disappear on the final straight.

I will say this plainly. If Liverpool lose or draw this game and then lose the title on the final day, the questions will not be about Brentford. They will be about what Liverpool did in this moment. Standards are measured at moments like Sunday. End of.

Brentford will not lie down. They never do under their setup. But Liverpool have the quality, the occasion, and the home crowd. Back them to win. Clean sheet is possible but I would not pin money on it given Brentford's output this season. Liverpool to win is the selection. Back it with conviction.

My Bet

Liverpool to win. Single. No messing. The model probability of 67.3% represents a strong case and I have seen enough of this Liverpool side this season to trust the result. If they fail to deliver, the accountability sits with the players on that pitch. Not with the logic. The logic is sound.

Team News and Injuries

The data sheet carries no confirmed injury information at this stage. That is not unusual seven days out. Watch for updates across the week. Any absence from Liverpool's first-choice defensive unit would change the clean sheet picture. Any disruption to their forward line changes the goals expectation. Check back closer to kick-off. I will not speculate on names I cannot confirm.

Final Word

Two points clear. Home game. Last proper opportunity to put the title beyond doubt before the final day. The basics are simple. Win the game. The desire has to be there from minute one. Anything less is unacceptable at this stage of a title race. Liverpool know that. Now they have to show it.