Right, settle in. Saturday 2 May. Estadio de Mendizorroza. Deportivo Alaves hosting Athletic Club in what could be one of the more significant fixtures of La Liga's run-in. This is the kind of match that means everything to one set of fans and a fair bit to the other. Let's get into it.

Where Both Clubs Are At

Look at the standings and the picture is pretty clear. Alaves are sitting in 17th. That is a relegation place, or right on the edge of one depending on how you want to read it. Every single point from here matters. This is not a game they can approach thinking about anything other than three points. The league table does not lie and right now it is not telling a pretty story for the home side.

Athletic Club are in 11th. Comfortably mid-table, not pushing for Europe but not looking over their shoulder either. That can work both ways, honestly. Sometimes a team in that position rolls into a ground relaxed and plays their best football. Sometimes they take their foot off the gas and you wonder where the urgency went. Which version turns up on Saturday will matter a lot.

The Goals Tell a Story

Now here is where it gets interesting. Alaves have scored 35 goals this season and let in 46. Athletic Club have scored 33 and conceded 45. Look at those numbers for a second. Both of these sides have been leaking goals all season. Neither defence has exactly covered itself in glory. And both attacks have been ticking over without setting the world alight.

What does that tell you? It tells you this game has goals in it. Both teams struggle to keep things tight. Both teams can find the net. I am not sitting here waving around xG... well actually, I do not do xG on principle, sounds like something Connor would bring up to ruin a perfectly good conversation. What I will say is that the raw numbers from this season point towards an open game. These are not two sides who grind out 0-0 draws. The evidence is right there in the goals for and against columns.

What Alaves Need to Do

Listen, when you are 17th and fighting for your life, the mentality stuff is just as important as the tactics. Mendizorroza needs to be a fortress on days like this. The home crowd, the pressure, the knowledge that defeat could be devastating... all of that has to fuel Alaves rather than freeze them.

They need to be compact, they need to be organised, and they need to make Athletic Club work hard for everything. Alaves have conceded 46 goals this season which is not great reading. They cannot afford to be as open as they have been. If they give Athletic Club space to play, it could get uncomfortable quickly. But here is the thing, 17th place or not, home advantage is real. Mendizorroza on a matchday with something at stake can be a genuinely intimidating place. Alaves need to use that.

Going forward they need to be clinical. Thirty-five goals across a season is not a disaster but it is not setting pulses racing either. They cannot afford to create chances and waste them. Not today. Not with the table looking like it does.

What Athletic Club Might Do

Athletic Club will fancy this. Away from home, against a side in the bottom three... on paper this looks winnable for them. They have been reasonably consistent this season, 33 goals scored shows they have got players who can hurt you, and 45 conceded suggests they are not exactly a defensive masterclass either.

The question for Athletic is whether they treat this with the seriousness it deserves. Mid-table security can breed a certain kind of... looseness. They have nothing to play for in terms of European spots or relegation fears. What they do have is Basque pride, a passionate fanbase travelling to Mendizorroza, and the professional responsibility to perform. Sometimes that is enough. Sometimes it is not.

If they are switched on from the first whistle, they have the quality to make life very difficult for an Alaves side that has been fragile at the back. If they show up half-hearted, Alaves will smell it and come at them.

The Vibe Check

Honestly? This feels like one of those fixtures where the occasion takes over. Alaves fans will be loud, nervous, passionate. Desperate for a reaction. That energy can lift a side. It can also make players tighten up. Which way it goes will probably decide the result as much as anything tactical.

Athletic Club have dealt with atmospheres like this before. They are a club with real history and experience. But travelling to a ground where the home side is fighting for survival is never comfortable, no matter where you are in the table.

Both sets of fans are going to be into this one. Scenes are possible. I am just saying.

Jay's Saturday Special Acca Corner

Right. You knew this was coming. I'm going big on this one. Both teams to score in this game is almost writing itself when you look at the defensive records. Forty-six conceded for Alaves, forty-five for Athletic. These are not clean sheet merchants. BTTS feels like the move here, don't @ me.

I am also having a little look at over 2.5 goals because with both sides this porous at the back, keeping it tight for ninety minutes feels unlikely. Add it to the Saturday acca, stick a fiver on it, enjoy the chaos. Will it land? Mate, my acca record speaks for itself and it does not speak kindly. But the logic is there this week. You heard it here first.

Back to the drawing board is always an option. It usually is.

Final Thought

This is a genuinely compelling fixture. Alaves fighting for their top-flight lives against an Athletic Club side who could either be the generous visitors or the ones who put the boot in. The goals data says it will be open. The occasion says it will be emotional. Mendizorroza on a big day is a proper football ground with proper football noise.

I reckon Alaves give everything they have got. I reckon Athletic Club are good enough to cause problems. And I reckon we are in for a match. Saturday cannot come soon enough.