Aalesund's Leaky Defence Hosts a Molde Side That Just Cannot Win Away: Eliteserien Preview

Right. Norwegian football on a Saturday afternoon. Some of you are already tuning out. Don't. Because Aalesund vs Molde on July 11th has got more going on under the surface than half the Premier League fixtures this weekend. Sit down. Let me talk you through it.

Where They Both Sit

Aalesund are 13th in the Eliteserien. Eleven games played, two wins, five draws, four losses. Eleven points. They are not in a relegation panic yet but they are close enough to the bottom three to be keeping one eye over their shoulder. Goal difference is minus five. That tells you the story. They are a team that concedes. A lot.

Molde are 5th. Six wins from eleven games, 19 points, same as the team above them in fourth. They are right in the mix for the top end of the table but they need to start picking up more away points if they want to push up those standings. Look at the fixtures for Molde and you can see a side that does the business at home but goes a bit quiet when they travel.

The Big Problem for Aalesund: Goals Against, Goals Against, Goals Against

Honestly, where do you start. Aalesund at home over their last six games. One win, three draws, two losses. Goals for: ten. Goals against: twelve. Clean sheets: zero. Nil. Not one.

BTTS percentage at home? One hundred percent. Every single home game in that run has seen both teams score. Every. Single. One. Over 2.5 goals? 83 percent of those home matches. This is not a ground where you come and park the bus and grind out a 1-0. This is a ground where stuff happens.

And the injury situation is not helping them one bit. Aalesund are carrying three injured players out, including two long-term absentees who have been out since January. There is also a major injury that started in mid-April with no return date set. That is a battered squad trying to hold things together. It shows in the goals conceded column and it will show again on Saturday.

Molde Away: The Puzzle They Have Not Solved

Look. Molde at home are a different animal. Last five at their own ground: four wins, one loss. Twelve goals scored, four conceded. That is a proper home record. The momentum slope is pointing up. The vibes at the Aker Stadion are obviously good.

But away? That is where it gets interesting. Last five away from home: one win, one draw, three losses. Four goals scored, nine conceded. Nine. Molde have shipped nine away goals in their last five on the road. So we have got a leaky home side hosting a team that also leaks goals when they travel. This is not going to be a cagey affair, mate.

Molde do have their own injury concerns. Three players out, including one long-term absence that has been running since May of last year, a major injury from February, and a moderate one from May this year. They are not at full strength either.

The Numbers That Actually Matter

I actually looked at the numbers for once and even I cannot ignore what they are screaming here. Right, so someone at SportSignals will tell you about xG and I will dutifully roll my eyes at it... but then I notice that Aalesund's home xG for is ten and xG against is twelve, which means they are basically performing exactly as badly as expected. No luck hiding there. They are just genuinely porous at the back.

Aalesund have had about 39 shots per game at home in recent matches. That sounds impressive until you realise only seven of those are on target per game. That is a lot of wayward efforts. Possession sitting at just 24 percent at home as well, which means they are sitting deep, letting the game come to them, and then trying to hit on the counter. Against a Molde side that has been prolific at home, that low block might actually keep things tighter than the underlying numbers suggest. Or it might just mean Molde have more of the ball and eventually find a way through.

Aalesund's overall last five is actually not as grim as the home stuff suggests. Two wins, two draws, one loss across all games. Eight goals scored in five matches. So they can find the net. They just cannot stop the other lot doing the same.

No Head-to-Head to Fall Back On

There is no recent head-to-head data available for this one, which is a bit frustrating. No patterns to lean on from previous meetings. We are going purely off current form and the numbers in front of us. Sometimes that is actually cleaner. No noise. Just the data.

The Call

Right. Here is what I reckon. Aalesund have kept zero clean sheets at home all season in recent form. Molde have scored in all sorts of games even while losing away. Both teams have goals in them. Both defences are there to be exploited.

I'm going big on this: BTTS is the banker here. It has landed in 100 percent of Aalesund's recent home games. Molde's away BTTS rate is 60 percent. The combination of a defensively troubled home side and a travelling Molde who leak goals on the road points to both ends of the pitch seeing action.

For the result, Molde have the better squad depth, the better league position, and the motivation of pushing for European spots. But their away form is genuinely concerning. This could easily end in a draw, and Aalesund have drawn three of their last five home games. A share of the spoils with goals at both ends feels right to me. Something like 2-2 or 1-1... actually no, not 1-1 given what we have seen from Aalesund at home. Goals are coming. Back to the drawing board if not.

You heard it here first. BTTS yes, and probably more than two goals on the board by full time. Don't @ me.