Ligue 1 · France
Past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+. begambleaware.org
Toulouse vs Lyon · Anytime Goalscorer
Ligue 1 · Sun, 19:00 UTC · Stadium de Toulouse
How we price these markets
Each player’s anytime probability is built from per-90 goalscoring rates over the last 10 matches, adjusted for opponent defensive form, home/away split, and fixture difficulty. Best line is the highest decimal odds we see across our 12 covered UK bookmakers. Edge is our model probability minus the bookmaker’s implied probability — positive edges suggest the bookmaker is offering a price below the true probability.
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Player props — top picks
Poisson model on each player’s last 10 matches. Top 5 per market.
Anytime goalscorer picks
Probability of scoring at least once
Player shots over picks
Top players by Poisson over-probability
Shots-on-target picks
Above-the-line probabilities from last 10 matches
Tackles over picks
Defensive volume from each player’s last 10
18+. Predictive model only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. begambleaware.org
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