Marítimo vs Casa Pia, Match Predictions

Liga Portugal · Sat, 08 Aug 2026, 15:30 KO

Marítimo

Kicks off in

6d 0h

Casa Pia

DWLLLLast 5

Match Probabilities

Full-Time Result

44%

27%

29%

43.9%CSM

27.3%Draw

28.8%CAS

Both Teams to Score

50%

Yes 50.2%No 49.8%

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

47%

Yes 46.6%No 53.4%

Goals Markets

Over 1.5

71%

Over 2.5

47%

Over 3.5

26%

More markets

On the double chance our model rates CSM or draw at 53.8%; the most likely half-time state is a half-time draw at 55.6%; both teams scoring in both halves is priced at 5.8%.

Double Chance

53.8%

8.9%

37.2%

Half-Time Result

CSM

27.0%

Draw

55.6%

CAS

17.4%

BTTS in Both Halves

Yes

5.8%

94.2%

Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.

Most likely scorelines

All odds →

1-1

11.1%

6.50

0-1

8.5%

8.50

1-0

8.5%

8.50

2-1

8.0%

9.00

1-2

7.6%

9.50

Implied by the correct-score market across 39 priced scorelines, with the bookmaker margin removed. Marítimo goals first in each score.

18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.

Market calls

Recorded before kick-off · timestamped displayed prices

Model pick

Under 2.5 goals

Our model rates this at 53% (fair decimal price 1.87); the verified best displayed price implies 54% and was observed 2 Aug, 13:26.

implied 54%model 53%

1.85bet3651.85Betfair1.80888sport

Value pick

Marítimo to win

The verified best displayed price sits 6.0 percentage points above our modelled fair line for this outcome (fair decimal price 2.28).

implied 38%model 44%

2.64Smarkets2.60Paddy Power2.50Betfred

Informational only, not betting advice. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.

Match preview & picks

🎯

Model pick: Under 2.5 goals

53% confidence · Model rates Under 2.5 at 53%; market implies 54%. · verified best displayed at bet365

1.85

Check price

💎

Value pick: Marítimo win

+6.0pp edge vs market · verified best displayed at smarkets

2.64

Check price

📊

xG lean: Marítimo to win

Model 43.9% · market 38.5%

2.60

Check price

All odds

Best price · UKGC books

All Odds

Full table →

Bookie	Home	Draw	Away
Betfair	8/5	5/2★	31/20
Paddy Power	8/5	5/2★	3/2
bwin	31/20	12/5	31/20
Smarkets	41/25★	11/5	13/8
bet365	3/2	12/5	3/2
Betfred	3/2	12/5	3/2
Unibet	31/20	9/4	31/20
BetVictor	31/20	11/5	31/20

+4 more bookmakers on the full odds page.

Prices update regularly. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.

AI Prediction

Verified best displayed price 1.85

CSM win43.9%

Draw27.3%

CAS win28.8%

Top signal

Under 2.5 goals

totals · model 53%

18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.

Edge · SportSignals+

Every +EV price and trend for this match, ranked by edge.

Open the Edge tab

Full-time result accuracy

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50.2%

full-time-result selections recorded before kickoff and settled

922 correct from 1835 resolved picks

Competition scope: all competitions with verified settled selections
Data through:: 2 Aug 2026
Period:: 15 Apr 2026 to 2 Aug 2026

50.2%

Correct means the selection settled as won on the 90-minute result. Every selection counted here was recorded before kickoff. Past performance does not guarantee future results.