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Jay Thompson · 26 July 2026
Last updated 30 July 2026. Match kicks off Saturday 8 August 2026, Croatian 1. HNL.
Right. Croatian football. August. New season. And we've got ourselves a proper little puzzle here with Lokomotiva Zagreb hosting Gorica. I know, I know. You're already scrolling past for the Premier League stuff. Don't. Stick with me. Because there is actually something interesting going on with these two sides heading into the new campaign.
Lokomotiva finished 6th last season heading into the new campaign. Gorica come in at 10th. On paper that tells you something. But form over the last ten games tells you quite a lot more. And honestly, neither side is setting the world alight right now. Two teams with momentum slopes pointing slightly downward, a draw count that would make your nan yawn, and a head-to-head record that is exactly one game long. One game! That's it. Lokomotiva won it 2-0 back in April. Clean sheet, two goals, job done. Slim evidence but it's what we've got, mate.
Here's the thing about Lokomotiva. Look at the fixtures and look at where they do their business. At home, over the last five games, they've gone W-W-W-L-D. Three wins, one loss, one draw. Seven goals scored. That's a side that knows how to use their own patch. They've kept clean sheets in 40% of those home games too.
But away from home? Mate. DDDWD over the last five. One win, four draws, zero losses but also zero real attacking threat. Four goals in five away games. They are the living embodiment of "hard to beat but also hard to watch" on the road. Good news for Saturday though because they're at home. The home version of Lokomotiva is a genuinely different animal.
Zoom out to the last ten overall and you get 4 wins, 5 draws, 1 loss. That's a solid enough base. But the momentum slope is at minus 0.21. Slightly drifting. They haven't kicked on the way you'd want before a new season.
Now the injury news. And this is not nothing. Lokomotiva are going into this one with three long-term injuries confirmed. All three players have been out since late 2024 or early 2025 in two cases, and one since March 2026. No expected return dates on any of them. That is a proper chunk of the squad unavailable and I reckon that has contributed to the flat form string we've seen recently. DDDLD in the last five overall. No wins. Two goals scored. That is not great, is it.
Gorica away from home is not a pretty watch. LLWLD in their last five away games. One win, one draw, three losses. Six goals conceded. Zero clean sheets on the road. None. Clean sheet percentage away from home is 0%. So whatever Lokomotiva cook up offensively, Gorica's backline away from Zagreb is not going to feel like a fortress.
At home though, Gorica are decent. WLWLW in their last five at their own ground. Three wins, two losses. Eight goals scored, four conceded. Clean sheet percentage at home sits at 60%. Weird split, that. Completely different team depending on which direction they're travelling. The 10th place table position starts to make more sense when you factor in that road record.
Overall momentum slope for Gorica is minus 0.3 in the last five games. That is the steeper negative of the two sides. They are trending in the wrong direction heading into the new campaign.
Look. There's an xG figure in the Gorica away data. xG. You know what that is. It's the stat that people cite to explain why their team deserved to win a game they lost 3-0. Anyway, Gorica's away xG for is 2, their xG against is 5 over the last five away games. They're creating less than they're conceding in terms of... yeah. "Expected goals." Which basically just agrees with what the actual scorelines already told us. They get done away from home. You didn't need a calculator for that one.
I actually looked at the numbers for once and the one that stood out to me is the over 2.5 percentage for Lokomotiva at home over the last ten games. 57%. Over half their home games in that sample went over two and a half goals. That is worth knowing. Both teams score percentage at home for Lokomotiva sits at 28.57% which is lower, so the goals are coming but often it's one side doing most of the damage.
The model gives Lokomotiva Zagreb a 44.4% probability of winning this. Confidence rating of 44. That is not an overwhelming endorsement but it is the highest probability outcome in the match. No odds are available yet at time of writing but based on that probability you'd expect Lokomotiva to come in somewhere around the 2.10 to 2.30 range when the market opens. Keep an eye on that.
Honestly, the head-to-head is basically useless with one game in the sample. But that one game was a 2-0 Lokomotiva home win. Clean sheet. Gorica didn't score. Their away record says they probably won't here either.
I'm going big on this. Lokomotiva Zagreb to win and under 2.5 goals. Hear me out. Lokomotiva at home have real wins in them but the injuries and the flat recent form suggest this isn't going to be a goal fest. Gorica don't score away. The one previous meeting ended 2-0. I reckon something similar here. A tight, slightly dour, 2-0 or 1-0 to the home side.
If you want to be adventurous, Lokomotiva win and both teams not to score has some appeal given Gorica's 0% away clean sheet rate means they concede, but they've also only managed BTTS in 40% of away games which means they often don't score themselves. Lokomotiva keeping a clean sheet in a home win? You heard it here first. Don't @ me when it lands.
Both teams to score has only happened in 40% of Lokomotiva's home games and only 40% of Gorica's away games. That's not a screaming BTTS match. Back to the drawing board if it ends up 3-2, obviously. But the data points one way here.
Lokomotiva Zagreb to win. Under 2.5. Saturday 8 August. Let's go.
