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Jay Thompson · 23 July 2026
Right. What a second half that was.
Derry City vs CSKA Sofia. Europa League. A game that looked like it was going absolutely nowhere for most of the ninety minutes suddenly exploded into life and gave us goals, cards, chaos, and an own goal in stoppage time. This is why we watch football, mate. This is exactly why.
Final score: Derry City 1-2 CSKA Sofia. But honestly, the scoreline does not tell you half of what went on out there.
Look at the stats from the first half and you can paint the picture pretty easily. CSKA Sofia had the ball. Fifty-six percent possession. More shots, more attacks, more dangerous attacks. One hundred attacks to Derry's eighty. Sixty-four dangerous attacks to fifty-eight. On paper, CSKA were the better side. But the scoreboard stayed blank going into the break.
Derry were working hard. Eleven corners across the game tells you they were getting forward and causing problems from wide areas. Six shots though, with only two on target. That is the issue. All that activity and not enough of it actually threatening the keeper.
CSKA were the same story in reverse. Ten shots, four on target. Tidy enough in possession but not clinical.
Nil-nil at half time. Tight. Tense. Scrappy. You know the vibes.
Derry made a substitution right at the start of the second half. Forty-sixth minute. And then, one minute later, they scored. Forty-seventh minute. A field goal. Whether that sub sparked something or it was just timing, Derry City had the lead and the Brandywell was bouncing.
Then CSKA got a card in the forty-sixth minute for a foul. So in the space of about sixty seconds you had a card, a sub, and a goal. Absolute scenes.
Derry were ahead. And honestly, given the way the first half had gone, you could argue they had ridden their luck a bit to get there. CSKA were the more dominant side on the ball. But football does not care about that. You take your chances when they come.
CSKA Sofia made a double substitution on seventy minutes. Two fresh legs. And within four minutes they were level. Seventy-fourth minute. A field goal. Just like that, the game was reset.
Then immediately after the equaliser, another CSKA player was booked. Seventy-fifth minute, another foul. So CSKA pulled themselves level and then straight away one of their lads was in the referee's notebook. Nervy stuff. Really nervy stuff.
Derry made changes too. Seventy-eighth minute substitution. But it was CSKA who were growing in confidence now. They had the momentum. They had the possession advantage. And they had that look about them.
Derry picked up a yellow card on seventy-nine minutes. The game was getting edgy. Foul counts were climbing. CSKA had seventeen fouls across the whole match. Derry had thirteen. Not a dirty game exactly, but not a friendly either. This was a proper European qualifier with real stakes and both teams feeling it.
Right. Ninety minutes. Multiple things happen at once. Substitutions from both sides. And then... an own goal.
Ninety minutes. Own goal. Credited to a CSKA Sofia player. Derry City pull it back to 1-2.
Then two more cards for CSKA in the ninetieth minute. Two. In the same minute. One to an identified player, one where the data does not give us a name. So CSKA were finishing the game with their nerves absolutely shredded, giving away fouls, getting booked, and watching the deficit shrink to one goal.
But it was not enough. The whistle went. CSKA Sofia, 2-1. Job done. Barely.
I actually looked at the numbers for once and they back up the eye test pretty well here. CSKA had more of the ball, more shots, more dangerous attacks. They were the better team across ninety minutes even if Derry led for a spell. The fact CSKA had 56 percent possession away from home in a European qualifier is decent. That is a team that knows how to play.
Derry's eleven corners is a funny one though. Eleven corners and only one goal from six shots. They were creating situations but not converting them. And their shots on target number, just two from six total shots, tells you the finishing was not there.
CSKA's four yellow cards is a concern. That is a lot of bookings in one game, especially with the second leg presumably still to come in this tie. Disciplinary baggage heading into the next round is not ideal. Someone is going to be sweating on a suspension.
Also worth noting. Both teams scored in this one. BTTS landed. The model had put out a BTTS No signal before the game and, well, that one is a bust. One hundred percent BTTS rate across both teams in this competition so far. Goals are flying in whenever these two meet.
Not great, mate. Two losses from two in this European campaign. Three goals scored, five conceded. No wins. The home form in this competition is rough. They had their moments today. They led at forty-seven minutes. They pulled it back to 1-2 in stoppage time through someone's misfortune. But they could not hold a lead and could not find a winner.
The model had fancied Derry at 4.00. Big value play on paper. Forty-eight point three percent probability for the home win. Nearly a coin flip in theory. But football is not theory. Derry lost. The signal lost. Back to the drawing board.
Two wins from two in this competition. Five goals scored. Winning both home and away. They are not blowing teams away but they are grinding out results. That is what experienced European sides do. They stay in games, they make their changes count, and they nick it when they need to.
That seventy-fourth minute goal was the difference. Simple as that.
Don't @ me, but CSKA are going through this tie. You heard it here first.
Edge · SportSignals+
Closing-line value and settled EV for every pick in this match.
Open SportSignals+Correct means the selection settled as won on the 90-minute result. Every selection counted here was recorded before kickoff. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
