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Jay Thompson · 2 August 2026
Last updated 3 August 2026. Right, we are a week out from this one and the data is starting to fill in nicely. Apollon vs Brann, UEFA Europa Conference League, Tuesday 11 August, kick off at 5pm. This is a tie I have been keeping an eye on and honestly... there is a lot to like here from a betting perspective. Let me walk you through it.
Look at the form on Apollon right now. Two games in this competition. Two wins. Seven goals scored. Zero conceded. That is not a typo. Seven goals, zero against. Their home record in the competition reads one game, one win, three goals for, none against. The away game? Four goals, still nothing conceded. These lads are rolling.
Every single game Apollon have played in this competition has gone over 2.5 goals. 100 per cent. And because they have been keeping clean sheets left right and centre, the BTTS percentage sits at zero from their end. Their opponents just have not been able to score against them. That clean sheet percentage across both home and away games is 100. Mad scenes.
Now, can they keep that up against Brann? That is the question. But the momentum is real and the home advantage matters. They are in a brilliant place right now and any team that can rack up seven goals in two qualifying games without letting in a single one deserves serious respect.
Brann are a completely different proposition from Apollon in terms of their goal profile. Where Apollon shut the door, Brann leave it swinging open. In their last five games across all contexts, the Norwegians have a BTTS rate of 100 per cent. Every single game they have played has seen both sides score. Every one.
Their overall form shows one win and one draw, five goals scored, three conceded. In their one away game in this competition they drew, scoring two but giving up two as well. So they travel, they contribute, but they leak. That is the Brann way at the moment.
The momentum slope on Brann overall is actually positive right now, sitting at plus two. They are not a bad side. They just... give up goals. And against an Apollon team that has been ruthless in front of goal, that could be a problem.
Here is where it gets a bit concerning for Brann fans, and I want to be straight with you about this. Brann are heading into this game with three players confirmed out.
Two of those are long term injuries, both with no clear return date confirmed or one not expected back until the end of December 2026. Then there is a third player out with a major injury, also with no return date. Three players unavailable for a squad travelling to play away in Europe is a real headache. We do not have the specific names or positions in the data, but three bodies missing from a squad for a conference league qualifier away from home is not ideal. Not ideal at all.
Apollon have no injury concerns listed in the data. Clean bill of health going into the tie. Another advantage to the home side.
Right so the signal from the model gives Apollon a 40.7 per cent probability of winning this. Confidence is rated at 41 out of 100. So this is not a nailed on home win by any stretch. The model is basically saying this is an open contest.
What the model also flags is that both teams to score has a 61 per cent chance of landing. And over 2.5 goals is sitting at a 60 per cent probability. Now, I know what you are thinking. Apollon have not conceded once in this competition. How is BTTS at 61 per cent? Well, their opponents in previous rounds were clearly not the level of Brann, who have scored in every single game they have played. The model is adjusting for quality of opposition here and I think that is right.
Look, xG... right, I have to mention it because it is in the data. Some teams have xG figures listed in the league standings. I will be honest, I sat staring at those numbers for about three minutes trying to work out which team was which and gave up. What I can tell you is the actual goals data tells the story well enough. Apollon score goals and do not concede. Brann score goals and do concede. Simple as that.
Okay here is where we get to it. I'm going big on this one.
Over 2.5 goals at 60 per cent model probability is the main play here. Every Apollon game has gone over 2.5. Every Brann game has gone over 2.5. Both teams come into this scoring freely. The only question was whether Apollon could keep a clean sheet again but given Brann have BTTS in every single game they have played, I would not be banking on a shutout this time.
BTTS is my secondary interest here. 61 per cent according to the model, and Brann's record backs that up completely. Apollon have been incredible defensively but Brann are not the same level of opposition they have been facing. A goal from the Norwegian side feels very much on the cards.
For the acca lovers, over 2.5 goals and Apollon to win in the same game feels like a tidy combination. Apollon are at home, they are in brilliant form, they score plenty, and the model gives them the highest single outcome probability at just over 40 per cent. Stick that alongside another over 2.5 from elsewhere on the Tuesday night and you have got yourself a cheeky midweek double.
Don't @ me if Brann nick a 1-0. That is football. But the data points one way here.
Apollon are in form, at home, fully fit, and have been scoring for fun. Brann are not without quality but they concede, they are missing three players to injury, and they have not won away from home in this competition yet. The vibes are firmly with the home side here.
You heard it here first. This game goes over 2.5 goals. Apollon win. And there is every chance Brann get on the scoresheet too given their track record. Set your reminders for Tuesday 5pm and enjoy it. Should be a decent game this one.
