Southampton vs Derby: Post-match analysis
Right, what a second half that was at St. Mary's Stadium. Southampton 2-1 Derby. Five wins on the bounce for Simon Rusk's side and honestly... if you're not paying attention to what's happening on the
Right, what a second half that was at St. Mary's Stadium. Southampton 2-1 Derby. Five wins on the bounce for Simon Rusk's side and honestly... if you're not paying attention to what's happening on the south coast right now, you're missing something special. Derby came here with a plan, got their goal, and then watched it completely unravel in the space of seven second-half minutes. Scenes.
Derby's Early Sub Was a Warning Sign
Look, when your opposite number is making a substitution in the 9th minute, something has gone wrong. Bobby Lamont Clark was off before the game had barely started for John Eustace's side. We don't know exactly what happened there, injury presumably, but that kind of disruption before the match has found any rhythm... it matters. Derby had to reorganise almost immediately and that is never ideal when you're travelling away from home.
Credit where it's due though. Despite that chaos, Derby actually got themselves in front. Carlton John Morris put them ahead on 38 minutes and St. Mary's went quiet. Properly quiet. You know that silence when a home crowd genuinely doesn't know what just happened? That. Derby had 38 per cent of the ball in this game and still managed to lead at half time. That tells you something about how clinical they were in that first half.
| Derby goal (Morris) | 38' |
| Derby early substitution | 9' (Clark off) |
| Southampton possession | 62% |
| Derby fouls in the match | 14 |
The Second Half Collapse Was Coming
Look at the fixtures, look at the form, look at what Southampton have been doing over the last five games. Five wins from five. 19 wins from 41 games total. They are a side that keeps coming. And when Derby started picking up yellows in quick succession after the break... Dion Sanderson booked on 53 minutes, Oscar Fraulo gone on 55... you just felt it. Derby were hanging on. Fouling to stop the flow. 14 fouls in total from the away side compared to Southampton's 8. That tells its own story.
Honestly, once those cards started flying I turned to nobody in particular and said 'it's coming.' And it came. Leonardo Weschenfelder Scienza levelled it up on 62 minutes. Two minutes later Rusk throws on Ross Stewart and Tom Fellows. Then 69 minutes... Taylor Harwood-Bellis. A defender. Scoring the winner. In front of the home fans. Limbs.
| Equaliser (Scienza) | 62' |
| Southampton double sub | 64' (Stewart, Fellows on) |
| Sanderson yellow card | 53' |
| Fraulo yellow card | 55' |
| Winner (Harwood-Bellis) | 69' |
Southampton's Dominance in the Numbers
Right, now I actually looked at the numbers for once and... they back up everything you saw with your eyes. Southampton had 15 shots to Derby's 9. Twelve of those Southampton shots came from inside the box compared to Derby's 6. Six corner kicks to Derby's 2. 460 total passes to Derby's 290. This was a home side that controlled almost everything except the scoreboard for the first 62 minutes.
And here's where I have to mention the xG... and yes I know, I know, the fancy expected goals number that your mate who did a stats module at uni won't shut up about... but even that thing agrees. Southampton 1.64 to Derby's 0.91. Basically the stats were screaming 'Southampton should be winning this' while Derby were actually winning it. Football is mad.
Expected Goals vs Reality: Southampton xG: 1.64, Derby xG: 0.91
| Possession | Southampton 62% - Derby 38% |
| Total shots | Southampton 15 - Derby 9 |
| Shots inside box | Southampton 12 - Derby 6 |
| Shots on goal | Southampton 5 - Derby 4 |
| Corner kicks | Southampton 6 - Derby 2 |
| Total passes | Southampton 460 - Derby 290 |
| Accurate passes | Southampton 386 - Derby 217 |
| Fouls | Southampton 8 - Derby 14 |
| Yellow cards | Southampton 1 - Derby 2 |
Leonardo Weschenfelder Scienza, Taylor Jay Harwood-Bellis, Carlton John Morris
Where Does This Leave Both Sides?
Southampton are 5th in the Championship with 69 points from 41 games. Five wins in a row. 19 wins, 12 draws, 10 losses on the season. Goal difference of plus 20. Look... I'm going big on this... they are right in the mix for automatic promotion or at the very least a top six finish that matters. You heard it here first.
Their home record tells you everything. 11 wins, 6 draws, just 3 losses from 20 home games at St. Mary's. Only 15 goals conceded at home all season. That is a fortress. Simon Rusk has built something solid since coming in.
Derby... look, 8th with 63 points from 42 games is still not bad. 18 wins on the season. John Eustace will be frustrated because his side actually looked decent in that first half. But their away form coming into this was 9 wins, 3 draws and 9 losses from 21 away matches. That inconsistency on the road is what's costing them. Coming here and leading at half time should have been three points. It wasn't. That's the Championship for you.
| Southampton position | 5th |
| Southampton points | 69 from 41 games |
| Southampton form | WWWWW |
| Southampton home record | 11W-6D-3L |
| Derby position | 8th |
| Derby points | 63 from 42 games |
| Derby form | LWLWW |
| Derby away record | 9W-3D-9L |
The Signal That Came In
Alright, I'll hold my hands up. The model had this one. Southampton to win at 5.5 with a 75 per cent confidence rating. Our model gave them a 59.1 per cent chance of winning when the market was implying just 18.2 per cent. That is a massive edge. And... it landed. Don't @ me, I'm enjoying this one.
Final Thoughts
Madness of a second half. Derby deserved better than nothing from this game, honestly they did, but that is what happens when you can't hold a lead and you're picking up yellows in the 53rd and 55th minutes. Cyle Larin added a yellow for Southampton right at the death on 90 minutes too, so plenty of bookings all round for referee Andrew Kitchen to deal with.
Southampton though... five in a row. 70 goals scored on the season. A defender scoring the winner at home. The vibes at St. Mary's right now are immaculate. Back to the drawing board for Derby. But for Southampton? This one feels big. Trust the process... actually no, forget the process, they're just winning football matches. That's all that matters, mate.