RB Leipzig vs Borussia Mönchengladbach: Post-match analysis

Right, so. Leipzig Stadium. A late goal. A nervy win. Yan Diomande popping up in the 80th minute to settle it. That's the story of RB Leipzig 1-0 Borussia Mönchengladbach and honestly.. it was a game that had absolutely no business being as tense as it was. Leipzig had 24 shots. Twenty-four. And yet we're sat here talking about a single goal winner. Zsolt Löw's side did what third-placed teams are supposed to do and took the three points, but Gladbach's goalkeeper had one of those afternoons where he was basically playing against eleven men on his own. Madness. Let's get into it.

The Gladbach Goalkeeper Was Doing WHAT?

Look, 11 saves. Eleven. Borussia Mönchengladbach's keeper made 11 saves in this match. Leipzig had 11 shots on goal and somehow only one of them ended up in the net. That's the kind of afternoon where you check the scoreboard three times because it doesn't feel right. Leipzig were camped in Gladbach's half for huge stretches. 18 shots from inside the box. The home side were doing everything right in terms of getting into the right positions.. and then just couldn't put it away. That one goal prevented stat for Gladbach's keeper? Should honestly read about seven. Remarkable individual performance from whoever was between the sticks for Seoane Castro's side.

The xG Situation (Yes I'm Going There)

Right so Marcus would love this bit. The xG.. that's the fancy expected goals number that apparently tells you what the score "should" have been, which I always reckon is just maths having a moan.. had Leipzig at 2.25 and Gladbach at 1.79. So according to the computers, both sides probably deserved more goals than they got. Leipzig definitely did. Gladbach's 1.79 feels generous considering they only managed 3 shots on target but hey, don't @ me, I didn't invent the algorithm. The point is, Leipzig were the better side by a fair margin when you look at everything. They just had a keeper absolutely standing on his head in front of them for 90 minutes.

Expected Goals: RB Leipzig: 2.25, Borussia Mönchengladbach: 1.79

Diomande. The Man. The Moment.

When everyone's getting frustrated, when the subs are on, when the crowd is starting to wonder if this is going to end 0-0.. Yan Diomande. 80th minute. Nothing normal about it for Leipzig. That's the difference between three points and one, between holding third place and the pressure mounting. And the timing of it. Two minutes earlier Xaver Schlager had picked up a yellow card and the whole thing felt a bit ragged. Löw brought Diomande off almost immediately after, 90th minute, protected him once the job was done. Smart man management that, if you ask me.

Yan Diomande

Cards, Chaos, and a Bobbins Afternoon for Discipline

Leipzig picked up four yellow cards today and honestly that's a subplot worth talking about. Baku went in the 33rd minute and then got subbed off at 78 to protect him. Seiwald got one in the 47th, same thing, hooked at 78. Zsolt Löw was clearly managing the situation, getting those two off before anything worse happened. Then Schlager picked one up at 78 anyway, because why not, and Brajan Gruda added a fourth in the 82nd. It was tetchy. The sentence should read: 'It was a busy afternoon for the officials.' or simply omit the referee reference. Gladbach's Scally went in the 35th too, right in that spell around the half hour where the whole thing could have turned a bit nasty. Credit to both benches really for keeping a lid on it.

Where Do These Two Go From Here?

Look at the fixtures. Leipzig are third in the Bundesliga with 56 points from 29 games. That's a proper season. 17 wins, 5 draws, 7 losses. Their form coming in was WWWLW and they've added another W to that. At home they've been excellent, 10 wins from 15 home games with 35 goals scored at Leipzig Stadium. Löw has got this side purring and this result keeps the pressure on whoever's above them. You heard it here first.. they're not done yet this season. Not by a long way.

Gladbach though.. mate. 13th in the table. 30 points from 29 games. 7 wins and 13 losses. Their away record is brutal, 3 wins from 15 away games, conceding 26 goals on the road. Seoane Castro has been in the job since June 2023 and right now the season looks like it's about survival and stability rather than anything exciting. Their last 5 form reads LDDWL. They nicked a win in there somewhere but this was never their kind of ground. They came, they parked the bus brilliantly for most of it, but in the end Diomande had the final say.

The Corner Kick Thing Nobody's Talking About

Right, here's a sharp one for you. Leipzig average just 0.5 corners per game across the season in their set piece data. Today they had 11. Eleven corners. That's not a coincidence, that's Leipzig absolutely pinning Gladbach back and forcing them into defensive positions over and over again. Meanwhile Gladbach only got 4, and they typically average 2.5 corners per game themselves. So even by their own standards they were limited today. The pressure Leipzig applied was relentless. The scoreline just doesn't reflect it properly and that's entirely down to one man in goal for Gladbach having an absolute worldie of a match.

Honestly.. 1-0 flatters nobody but Leipzig deserved this. 24 shots, 11 on target, 18 from inside the box, 52% of the ball, 11 corners. They did everything right except finish. Gladbach hung in there magnificently and their keeper was the story of the first 79 minutes. Then Diomande reminded everyone what this Leipzig side is capable of when they need a goal. Three points. Job done. Zsolt Löw keeps Leipzig in third and the pressure is firmly back on. Gladbach trudge home to think about what might have been if only.. well. You know. Football, innit. Back to the drawing board for the away side, and for my acca which definitely didn't involve this finishing 2-1. Don't ask.