Almería Stun Granada 4-2 in Six-Goal La Liga 2 Thriller

Right. Where do you even start with this one.

Granada vs Almería. La Liga 2. Sunday afternoon. Six goals, a home side that completely fell apart, and an away team that looked absolutely nothing like a side sitting in the bottom half of the table. This was proper football madness and if you missed it, mate, you missed a good one.

The final score tells you everything. Almería 4, Granada 2. Away from home. In a derby that means everything to both sets of supporters. Scenes.

Granada's Collapse at Home

Look, Granada came into this as the team with momentum on their side, at least on paper. At home, in front of their own fans, with a chance to put a statement down. The model had them at 42.8% to win this, which is nearly half a coin flip. There was genuine reason to believe.

And for a spell, going by that final scoreline, it looks like Granada were very much in this. You do not end up 2-4 without having actually contributed to the game. Two goals at home is not nothing. But four conceded at home? That is a problem. That is a real, proper problem.

Granada have now got some serious questions to answer about their defensive shape. Eleven wins at home this season, two draws, four losses according to the standings data. They have actually been decent at the Nuevo Los Cármenes for most of the campaign. So to get turned over like this, conceding four, in front of your own supporters... that hurts. That really hurts.

The vibes at full time must have been absolutely rotten. You can imagine it. The groans. The heads in hands. The long walk back to the car park.

Almería Were Brilliant Away From Home

Honestly, can we just appreciate what Almería did here for a second? Because this is a side that has really struggled on the road this season. Three away wins before today. Three. In seventeen attempts. That is a brutal record.

And yet here they come to Granada and put four past them. Four. I actually looked at the numbers for once and Almería's away form coming in was genuinely grim. So this result is even more remarkable when you put it in that context.

Something clicked for them. Whether it was the occasion, whether it was the desperation of a side that needs every single point it can get, or whether Granada just had an absolute nightmare of a defensive afternoon, I cannot tell you exactly. But Almería were ruthless and you have to give them their credit.

What Does This Mean in the Table?

Look at the fixtures and look at where both sides sit. This is La Liga 2 and the stakes at both ends of this table are enormous. Promotion dreams. Relegation nightmares. Every result matters.

Granada are sitting in eleventh place with 49 points from 35 games, and their recent form reads DLDWL coming in. That is not a side playing with any real consistency. A draw, a loss, a draw, a win, a loss. Up and down like a yo-yo. And now a home defeat to a struggling Almería side piled on top of that. The play-off places will feel a long way off right now if that run continues.

And Almería... this is potentially a massive result for them. Coming in with 49 points at position eleven before this game, they desperately needed something to keep themselves from being dragged back into the pack below. Win away at Granada and suddenly the mood changes. The dressing room lifts. Trust the process, as they say. Except actually, the process seemed to work today.

The Betting Angle

Right, I have to hold my hands up here. The signal on this one was Granada to win at 3.20. Model had them at 42.8% probability. Looked like genuine value on paper. Edge of 11.5% over the market, decent confidence rating.

Granada lost 2-4.

Back to the drawing board.

This is the thing about football, mate. You can have all the probability models in the world, you can find the value, you can do everything right in terms of the process, and then a team just decides to go and concede four at home to one of the worst away sides in the division. Football. Ruthless. Beautiful. Completely unpredictable.

For what it is worth, the model was not wrong to identify value. The probability said Granada were more likely to win than the odds implied. On another day, maybe they do. But Almería had other ideas and that is why we watch the games instead of just running the numbers.

You heard it here first... actually no. I told you to back Granada. Ignore everything I said.

The Bigger Picture

Six goals in a La Liga 2 derby between two Andalusian clubs. BTTS? Absolutely. Over 3.5 goals? Smashed it. Correct score punters who had 2-4? Legends. Absolute legends, wherever you are.

Granada need to respond fast. Their home form has been one of their strongest assets this season, eleven wins at home, and to let that slip in a game like this against a struggling Almería side is concerning. The defensive numbers do not lie. Conceding 55 goals in 35 games before today is already not great for a side with play-off ambitions. Add another four to that total and the picture gets worse.

For Almería, the challenge now is carrying this. Three away wins all season and then this. Can they do it again? Look at the fixtures, see what is coming up, and ask yourself whether this is the start of a run or just one of those brilliant, random afternoons that football occasionally throws at you.

Whatever it is, it was absolutely brilliant to watch. Six goals, an away team romping to a 4-2 win in a derby, limbs in the away end, absolute misery in the home sections. La Liga 2 delivering exactly what it should.

Don't @ me but I think Almería might just about survive this season on the back of performances like that.