What Lay the Draw Actually Means
Lay the draw means betting against a draw to occur. You're saying a draw will not happen. You profit if either team wins. You lose only if the match ends in a draw.
This is only possible on betting exchanges like Betfair, not with traditional bookmakers. On an exchange, you're betting against other users, not against the house.
The mechanics are simple. At 0-0, the draw odds might be 3.5. You lay the draw at 3.5. Someone backs the draw at 3.5. You've agreed: if the match ends in a draw, you pay them out at 3.5 to 1. If the match doesn't end in a draw, you keep their stake.
The appeal of lay the draw in-play is that you can identify moments when a draw is unlikely and collect profit from other traders who are betting on it.
Why Lay the Draw Works in-Play
Pre-match, lay the draw is risky. You're betting against a draw happening across 90 minutes. Many matches end in draws. The odds might be 3.5, which means the implied probability is about 28 per cent. Laying that, you need the team to win only 28 per cent of the time... wait, no. You need the team to win 100 per cent minus 28 per cent = 72 per cent of the time.
That's a high bar if the match is truly balanced.
In-play, lay the draw becomes much more attractive. Once a team goes ahead, the draw is less likely. If a team has momentum and is clearly winning, the draw is far less likely.
A match at 0-0 might have draw odds of 3.5. An hour later, one team is 2-1 up, clearly better, and the draw odds might be 7.0. By laying at 3.5 and getting the odds lengthened to 7.0, you've locked in profit if the team wins. If they eventually do win, you collect your profit.
The Classic Lay the Draw Trade
The simplest lay the draw strategy is to lay the draw at 0-0 when the match is close, then exit by backing it at longer odds if a goal is scored.
You lay the draw at 3.5 at 0-0. Your liability is 2.5 pounds (the amount you have to pay if a draw occurs). You're collecting 1 pound as profit on a 1 pound stake if a goal is scored.
Ten minutes in, a goal is scored. Draw odds extend to 5.0. You back the draw at 5.0. Your bets now cancel. If the match ends in a draw, you're flat. If it doesn't (one team wins), you profit.
This is the core lay the draw trade. You're taking two-way risk, but you're only collecting a small profit per trade. The idea is to repeat it across many matches, winning the majority and making accumulated profit.
When to Lay the Draw
The draw is most likely in matches between evenly matched teams. It's least likely in matches between strong favourites and weak teams.
You should lay the draw most aggressively when you can identify that one team is clearly better than the other. If you're watching a match and one team is dominating, laying the draw is attractive because their odds to win should shorten.
You should lay the draw at 0-0 when you believe the match will be high-scoring. A match that might finish 2-2 still has you losing, but the odds work out favourably if it finishes with any non-draw result.
You should be cautious about laying the draw when it's tight and defensive. In a 0-0 match between two defensive teams, the draw is more likely.
Exit Strategies for Lay the Draw
Once you've laid the draw, you need an exit strategy.
The simple exit: A team scores. Draw odds extend. You back the draw to cancel your original bet. You profit the difference in odds. This locks in a guaranteed profit if a goal is scored.
The aggressive hold: You lay the draw and don't exit. You're betting that the team will win. This has higher profit potential but higher risk if the match ends in a draw.
The partial exit: A team scores and draw odds extend. You back a smaller portion of your original lay. You've reduced your liability while maintaining some exposure if a second goal is scored and creates momentum for a comeback.
The hedge: If you're unsure, you can back the opposition team to win at the same time as laying the draw. This covers multiple scenarios.
Most professional lay the draw traders use the simple exit. A goal is scored, odds extend, they back the draw, they lock in profit and move to the next match.
Position Management in Lay the Draw
Lay the draw creates two-way risk. You're liable if a draw occurs, but you profit if either team wins.
Position management means understanding your maximum liability. If you lay the draw at 3.5, your liability on a 1 pound bet is 2.5 pounds. You might lay the draw on ten matches. Your total liability across all matches is significant.
This is why professional lay the draw traders use betting exchanges that allow unmatching bets. They don't want to hold large liabilities. They want to enter and exit quickly.
Professional traders also typically lay the draw only in matches where they believe a draw is genuinely unlikely. They don't lay the draw in tight 0-0 matches at 0-0. They wait for situations where one team is clearly stronger.
Lay the Draw and Betfair Complexity
On Betfair, there are nuances to lay the draw that matter.
Market-level rules mean that if you lay a draw before a goal is scored, and a goal IS scored, the odds on the draw don't automatically move. You're stuck with your original bet until you back it out.
But in many cases, the draw odds do lengthen, sometimes dramatically. The market updates. You can exit at profit.
The complexity is that sometimes markets are illiquid. You lay the draw, a goal is scored, but there's not enough volume to back the draw at longer odds. You're stuck holding the position. This is a risk of lay the draw trading.
Because of this, many traders only lay the draw in big matches with high volume where they know they can exit if needed.
Alternatives to Lay the Draw
If lay the draw appeals to you but you want to avoid the complexity, alternatives exist.
You can back a draw at short odds (1.3 or similar) pre-match, then lay the draw at longer odds after a goal. You're in a trading mindset but using traditional bookmakers' odds.
You can use match outcome bets instead. Instead of laying the draw, just back one team to win. This is simpler but less profitable per bet.
You can use handicap betting. Back a team with a -0.5 handicap, which means they must win (no draws allowed). This is essentially laying the draw in a traditional bookmaker setting.
The Volume Question: Is Lay the Draw Profitable?
To make money from lay the draw, you need to be right more often than the odds require.
If you lay the draw at 3.5, the implied probability of a draw is roughly 28 per cent. You need the match to end with a winner more than 72 per cent of the time. In reality, matches end in draws about 25-30 per cent of the time overall.
So if you're laying the draw at 3.5 and the true probability is 28 per cent, you're getting marginally overpriced odds. You need to be selective about which matches you lay the draw in.
The professionals who make money at lay the draw are selecting matches where draws are genuinely rare. Strong teams versus weak teams. Home teams with good records. Matches in cup competitions (fewer draws).
Casual traders who lay the draw on every match are giving away edges. The volume doesn't overcome the odds being against them.
In Summary
- Lay the draw is a classic in-play trading strategy.
- You lay the draw at 0-0, then exit by backing the draw when a goal is scored and odds have extended.
- You profit from the difference in odds.
- It works best when you're selective about which matches you trade, understanding that draws are genuinely unlikely in some matchups but not others.
- Volume of trades doesn't make up for trading unprofitable matches.
FAQ
How much profit per trade can you make from lay the draw? If you lay at 3.5 and back at 5.0, you're making roughly 5-10 per cent per trade. Across many trades, this accumulates, but you need high volume.
What's the maximum liability on lay the draw? If you lay the draw at 3.5, your liability is 2.5 times your stake. So a 1 pound lay has 2.5 pounds liability.
Should you hold lay the draw positions or always exit after a goal? Most professionals always exit after a goal to lock in profit. Holding creates large liability and limits profit per trade.
Is lay the draw better pre-match or in-play? In-play, because you can see one team is stronger and can lay the draw with more confidence.
Can you make consistent profit from lay the draw? Yes, but only if you're selective about matches and disciplined about exits. Casual traders usually lose.
What's the difference between lay the draw and backing a team to win? Lay the draw covers both team wins. Backing a team covers one team win. Lay the draw is more diversified but requires precision in odds.