Let me tell you what this fixture is. It is a match between a side sitting seventh in Ligue 2 who have scored 37 goals and conceded 28, and a side in fourteenth who have shipped 42 and scored 34. That is not a tactical chess match. That is two teams who enjoy a goal and struggle to stop one. The basics of defending are a foreign language to both sets of players and somebody is going to pay for that on Saturday.

Montpellier: The Home Advantage Means Nothing If You Do Not Defend It

Seventh place. Thirty-seven goals scored. Twenty-eight conceded. Montpellier have clearly got players who can hurt you going forward. The thing is, you look at that defensive record and you have to ask serious questions. Twenty-eight goals conceded at this stage of the season is not the profile of a side with genuine promotion ambitions. It is the profile of a side that wins games 3-2 and thinks that is acceptable.

It is not acceptable. End of.

Listen, I am not here to pretend Montpellier are a bad side. They are clearly capable of scoring goals and seventh place shows there is quality in that squad. But the defensive numbers tell you there is no real accountability at the back. You cannot compete at the top end of this division if you are giving goals away as freely as that. The desire to keep a clean sheet has to be there from the first whistle to the last. Right now, based purely on what the numbers say, it does not look like it is.

At home on Saturday they will have the crowd behind them. They will have the familiarity of their own pitch. None of that matters if they switch off at a corner or go to sleep from a set piece. Clermont will create chances. That much is certain.

Clermont: Fourteenth Place and Forty-Two Goals Conceded

The thing is, when you concede 42 goals you are not having a bad run. You have a problem. That is a structural issue with how this team defends as a unit, how they press, how they hold their shape, and how much they care when the ball is in their own half.

Thirty-four goals scored for a side in fourteenth tells you they are not without threat. They can hurt teams. But if you are scoring 34 and conceding 42 then your attitude to the defensive side of the game is not good enough. In professional football there is no grey area here. You either compete in both halves of the pitch or you end up where Clermont are sitting right now.

Travelling to a side seven places above you, with a better goal difference and more points, should be a reality check. It should bring out something in the players. A bit of steel. A refusal to come here and get turned over. Whether Clermont have that in them is the real question on Saturday.

Listen, fourteenth place is not a crisis yet. But 42 goals conceded is the kind of number that keeps a manager awake at night. Or it should do.

What This Match Looks Like

Two teams with leaky defences. Two teams who can score. A home side with more quality and a point to prove about their promotion credentials. An away side with very little to lose and enough attacking output to cause problems.

The thing is, matches like this rarely end 0-0. They rarely end 1-0. When you look at the combined 70 goals scored between these two sides and the combined 70 goals conceded, you are looking at a game that will almost certainly produce goals at both ends. Both teams have shown all season that they will give you something to work with in attack and something to worry about in defence.

Montpellier should win this. They are at home. They have the better defensive record of the two, which is not saying a great deal but it is saying something. They have scored more than Clermont. Seventh versus fourteenth is a real gap in quality and that should show on the pitch if Montpellier bring the right attitude from the off.

But Clermont's 34 goals scored tells you they will not simply park and absorb. They will have a go. And when you look at Montpellier's 28 goals conceded, you know there are gaps to exploit. This will not be a comfortable afternoon for anyone in a Montpellier shirt if they are not switched on from the first minute.

The Verdict

Montpellier to win. That is my call. At home, better placed in the table, with a superior record on both sides of the ball compared to a Clermont side who are conceding too freely to get a result here.

The thing is, I would not be backing a clean sheet from either side. The numbers this season have been very clear on that front. Both teams give goals away. Both teams score. Back Montpellier to get the three points and expect the game to be open enough that Clermont get on the scoresheet too.

Standards have to be higher than what both defences have shown this season. But if you are looking at this fixture purely as a match to call, Montpellier at home against a side seven places below them is not complicated. Win the basics. Compete for the full ninety minutes. The result should follow.

If it does not, the players need to look at themselves. Not the schedule, not the surface, not the opposition. Themselves. End of.