Scotland Stand Ninety Minutes From History Against a Vulnerable Brazil

Scotland can reach the World Cup knockout stages for the first time in their history on Wednesday night in Miami, and they can do it even if they lose to Brazil. A battling 1-0 defeat, a 2-0 reverse, or in certain circumstances something heavier still could be enough to send Steve Clarke's side through.

That is the strange, intoxicating reality facing Scotland. But the threat to this once-in-a-generation chance is not the famous yellow jersey. It is Scotland's own attacking impotence.

Sixty years of hurt: Scotland's painful history against Brazil

Scotland have never beaten Brazil. Not once in 10 meetings across four World Cups and six friendlies, stretching back 60 years.

The draws of 1966 and 1974

The first meeting, in 1966, ended 1-1, with Lisbon Lion-in-waiting Stevie Chalmers opening the scoring after a minute against the reigning world champions. The only other point came in a goalless draw in 1974, and that night still haunts the permutations Scotland face now.

In Frankfurt, the great Billy Bremner failed to convert from a few yards out just after the hour. It finished 0-0, and an undefeated Scotland went home on goal difference.

The goal-difference spectre looms large again, more than half a century later.

From Pele to Boyd's own goal

Scotland have faced a procession of Brazilian immortals: Tostao and Rivellino, Zico and Falcao, Romario and Ronaldo, Roberto Carlos and Cafu. They have beaten none of them.

The cruellest memory remains Paris in 1998, when Tom Boyd turned the ball into his own net in the 73rd minute to settle it 2-1. It is, perhaps fittingly, a Scottish connection that binds the two nations: Charles Miller, the founding father of Brazilian football, was the son of a man from Fairlie in North Ayrshire.

The attacking problem Clarke must solve

Here is the genuine danger to Scotland's historic chance. In two games in America, they have managed just two shots on target.

Committed but toothless

Against Morocco, Scotland produced a committed second-half display, applied pressure and had moments. But against a team good enough to counter with devastating consequences, they played with as much risk as was sensible and still failed to register a single effort on target.

Nobody in the camp is hiding from it. One by one this week, coaches and players have spoken about the need to fire shots, metaphorically and literally.

Clarke's balancing act

The task for Clarke is to find a hybrid plan that keeps things tight against a dangerous side while asking questions at the other end. He needs his big names to seize the moment.

• John McGinn and Scott McTominay must find a way to hurt Brazil from midfield.
• Andy Robertson insisted he does not care about permutations, but knows exactly what is required.
• It has been 15 years since Scotland last played Brazil and 28 years since they met at a World Cup.

Robertson's obsession is on the kind of result that powers Scotland through, not on treating defeat as a victory. As he made clear, you do not reach his level by viewing a loss as anything but a loss.

A beatable Brazil and the permutations that could write history

Reject the comfortable narrative of plucky underdogs against the mighty Selecao. This Brazil side is beatable, and Scotland should believe it. This is a World Cup preview worth taking seriously.

Twenty-four years without a title

It has been 24 years since Brazil last won this tournament, a veritable eternity for them. Since then: four losing quarter-finals, a losing semi-final, and the 7-1 horror of Belo Horizonte.

Their qualification campaign was sloppy. Played 18, won eight, drew four, lost six. They needed the 89th minute to beat Chile, the 90th to beat Peru and the 99th to beat Colombia.

They lost to Uruguay, Colombia, Paraguay, Bolivia and Argentina, the latter twice.

The Neymar question

Wednesday could mark the return of Neymar after an absence of two and a half years. The Brazilian media's fascination with his calf injury borders on the forensic, with a false-nine role or a cameo off the bench the likeliest outcomes.

Vinicius Junior remains the man Brazil look to, the winger most likely to propel them forward. But this is a vintage that has not yet shown itself to be a genuine contender.

What the permutations mean for bettors

The unusual maths scrambles the normal logic of match and goal markets. Because Scotland can advance in defeat, the value lies less in the result and more in the scoreline and over/under outcomes.

A narrow Scottish loss may serve their tournament interest, but Clarke cannot set up purely to lose by a single goal. The need to threaten Brazil and the need to limit the damage pull in opposite directions, and that tension is what makes the goal markets here so unpredictable.

What happens next

Scotland's game of the century kicks off in the blistering humidity of Miami on Wednesday. Avoid a heavy defeat, and they make the knockout phase for the first time in their history.

Clarke must resolve his own selection issues and decide how aggressive to be against a Brazil side that is dangerous but no longer imperious. The temptation to sit deep will be enormous, but the evidence of two toothless displays suggests passivity could be the bigger gamble.

If Scotland's big names finally fire, six decades of hurt against Brazil and a half-century of World Cup heartbreak could end on the same night. The opportunity may not come again.