Australia Hold All the Cards Against Paraguay Despite Losing Two Starters

Australia need only a draw against Paraguay in Santa Clara on Thursday (Friday 5am AEST) to seal second place in Group D and a place in the World Cup knockout stage. They go into the decisive finale missing two starters, but the maths could not be simpler: avoid defeat and the Socceroos are through.

The setback of losing right-back Jacob Italiano and winger Mat Leckie may prove a blessing. With fan favourites Nestory Irankunda, Cristian Volpato and Connor Metcalfe all pressing for a start after impressing against the USA, Tony Popovic has the chance to field a more dynamic, attacking side against opponents shorn of their talisman.

Two starters down: the injuries forcing Popovic's hand

Australia will be without two of the XI that started the match against the USA. Italiano picked up an adductor injury at training this week, joining Leckie, who suffered a hamstring strain in that fixture.

Geria and Trewin lead the defensive reshuffle

jason-geria" class="entity-link entity-link--player">Jason Geria, who played on the right side of central defence in the second half against the USA, and Kai Trewin, who started at full-back in the warm-up against Switzerland, are the most likely candidates to fill Italiano's berth.

Popovic, however, refused to confirm his hand and did not rule out a change to his system entirely.

"We're always considering all possibilities because we've always shown faith in every player that's here. Since we've started this journey, every player that's in our squad knows he has a chance of playing and that's no different for tomorrow."

That openness is significant. Rather than a like-for-like swap, Popovic could reshape the structure of the team to accommodate the attacking options now available to him.

The selection debate: does Irankunda finally get the start?

The bigger intrigue surrounds Leckie's replacement. Three names stand out, and all of them shone in the final half hour against the USA when Australia's second-half improvement gave Popovic genuine cause for optimism.

• Nestory Irankunda, the explosive winger and crowd favourite
• Cristian Volpato, who starred in the closing 30 minutes against the USA
• Connor Metcalfe, a versatile midfield option

Popovic keeps his cards close

Asked directly about the merits of starting Irankunda versus using him from the bench, Popovic declined to elaborate.

"We'll keep that at the basic level of analysis, which is, people are happy if a player plays and people are unhappy if they see a player they like that doesn't play."

His reasoning revealed where his focus lies. Nine of the players who started against the USA had also started the opening match, so Popovic's frustration centred on the performance rather than the personnel.

"We improved that performance in the second half, which really pleases us, and the players that came on made an impact," he said. "Whoever starts tomorrow I know can build a strong foundation and whoever comes on can finish what we've started."

That second-half surge is the key. The impact subs delivered, and the enforced changes now hand Popovic a chance to start the players who changed the game.

What's at stake and why Paraguay's Almiron blow tilts the tie Australia's way

The equation is clean. A win or a draw secures second place in Group D and qualification to the knockout stage. Australia control their own destiny entirely.

Almiron's reckless red card weakens Paraguay

Paraguay arrive without their most influential attacker. Miguel Almiron, who spent six years at Newcastle in the Premier League, is suspended after being sent off for covering his mouth during a confrontation in his side's 1-0 victory over Turkey.

It was a costly and avoidable dismissal. Losing a player of Almiron's quality for a decisive fixture shifts the dynamic of the match firmly, removing Paraguay's primary creative threat just when they need it most.

A home-time audience awaits

Back in Australia, the early-morning kick-off has the country primed for what has been dubbed the 'Great Socceroos Sickie', with pubs full and offices tuning in. This is the clearest route to a knockout berth Australia have had, and they take it with momentum, depth and a favourable matchup.

For bettors, the combination of Australia's improved second-half form, the return of their attacking depth and Almiron's absence makes the Socceroos a compelling proposition to secure at least the point they need.

What happens next

Australia face Paraguay in Santa Clara on Thursday (Friday 5am AEST) knowing a draw is enough. Popovic will name his side shortly before kick-off, with the identity of Leckie's replacement the most closely watched call.

Win or draw, and Australia advance to the last 32. The reward is a knockout fixture and the chance to build on a tournament that, after a sluggish start, is gathering pace at exactly the right moment.

Defeat would leave qualification dependent on results elsewhere, but with destiny in their own hands and Paraguay weakened, the Socceroos have every reason to believe.

Frequently Asked Questions

Will Australia qualify for the knockout stage?

Australia will secure second place in Group D and qualify for the World Cup 2026 knockout stage with either a win or a draw against Paraguay. They control their own destiny, so avoiding defeat is enough to progress.

When does Australia play Paraguay?

Australia face Paraguay in their final Group D fixture in Santa Clara on Thursday, which is Friday at 5am AEST in Australia. The early kick-off has prompted talk of the 'Great Socceroos Sickie' back home.

Why is Jacob Italiano missing the Paraguay game?

Right-back Jacob Italiano picked up an adductor injury at training in the build-up to the fixture and has been ruled out. Jason Geria and Kai Trewin are the leading candidates to replace him.

Will Nestory Irankunda start against Paraguay?

Irankunda is in contention to start after impressing as a substitute against the USA, but Tony Popovic declined to confirm his selection. He is competing with Cristian Volpato and Connor Metcalfe for the attacking slot vacated by the injured Mat Leckie.

Why is Miguel Almiron suspended?

Paraguay winger Miguel Almiron, formerly of Newcastle, was sent off for covering his mouth during a confrontation in his side's 1-0 win over Turkey. The suspension rules him out of the decisive group game against Australia.

Who is injured for Australia against Paraguay?

Australia are without right-back Jacob Italiano, who suffered an adductor injury in training, and winger Mat Leckie, who picked up a hamstring strain against the USA. Both started the previous group match.

What does Australia need to qualify?

A win or a draw against Paraguay guarantees Australia second place in Group D and a knockout berth. Only a defeat would leave their progress dependent on other results.