Survival Sunday in Asturias: Oviedo vs Alaves and a Relegation Battle That Could Go Either Way

Right. Let's talk about this one. Because if you're a neutral and you're not watching Oviedo versus Deportivo Alaves on Sunday 17 May, you are genuinely missing out. This is the stuff. The pressure, the nerves, the fans who can barely look. La Liga's bottom end serving up exactly what the final day of the season was made for.

The Situation at the Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere

Oviedo are sitting in 20th place. That's the bottom of the table. That's a relegation spot. And look at the goals against column... 48 goals conceded. In a league season. That is a defence that has been at it, and not in a good way. Only 24 goals scored at the other end means the goals difference is brutal. This is a side that has struggled all season to keep things tight and to find the net when it matters.

The Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere will be rocking though, mate. Genuinely. There's something about a club fighting for its life that brings out the absolute best in a home crowd. Oviedo's supporters will be behind this team every single second. Whether the players can feed off that energy rather than crumble under the weight of it... that's the question.

Alaves Are Not Safe Either. Not Even Close.

Look, I've seen people write Alaves off as the comfortable mid-table side coming to town. Nope. They're 17th. Three places and a handful of points above Oviedo depending on how the rest of the table shakes out. They've conceded 46 goals themselves this season and scored 35. That is not the record of a team cruising. That is a team that has scraped and scrambled its way to where it is.

Honestly, 35 goals scored is actually better than it sounds in this context. They've got more attacking threat than Oviedo on the numbers. But 46 goals conceded means they haven't exactly been a wall at the back either. Both of these teams love a leaky game, apparently. Which brings me to something I'll come back to in a minute...

Look at the Fixtures. No Really, Look at What This Match Means.

This is not a mid-season nothing game. This is Sunday 17 May. That is late in the calendar. Potentially the final day, or as near as makes no difference. Every point is worth more now than it was in September. Every goal swing could change who goes down and who stays up.

Oviedo absolutely need something from this game. A draw keeps a sliver of hope alive depending on other results. A win would be scenes. Full limbs at the Tartiere. The kind of moment that gets replayed forever on Spanish football highlight reels.

Alaves know that a loss here could drag them back into real trouble. Three points separate them from Oviedo right now but football has a funny way of making comfortable gaps disappear very quickly. They will not be coming here to do Oviedo any favours. They will set up to be hard to beat and nick something on the counter if they can.

Goals... or Not?

Here's where it gets interesting. My mate Marcus would pull up some xG number right now, and I'd pretend not to know what xG means, do a bit, get some laughs. But honestly, I actually looked at the numbers for once and they tell a story worth listening to.

Oviedo have conceded 48 times. Alaves have conceded 46 times. Between them that is 94 goals against across the season. Ninety four. These are not teams built on defensive solidity. And yet... in a match this tense, with this much riding on it, sometimes defences find something they didn't know they had. Adrenaline, desperation, whatever you want to call it. Managers set up cautiously. No one wants to be the one who left it open at the back.

So do I back goals or back a tight game? That is the eternal question, mate. The season-long data screams goals. The occasion screams caution. I'll get back to you on that one in the tips section below...

What Does Oviedo Actually Need to Do?

Play without fear. I know, I know, easier said than done when you're staring down relegation. But the worst thing Oviedo can do is sit deep and invite pressure and hope to nick a goal on the break. Their attacking numbers are not good enough for that to work consistently. 24 goals scored all season is thin. Very thin.

They need the home crowd, they need energy from the first whistle, and they need to make the Tartiere feel like a fortress for once. Put Alaves under pressure early. Make them feel the occasion too. If Oviedo sit back and wait, I worry for them. If they go at it... well, stranger things have happened.

What Does Alaves Need to Do?

Don't do anything daft. Simple as that. Alaves are in the better position and they need to protect it. They've got more goals in them than Oviedo this season and if they can stay disciplined, absorb whatever Oviedo throw at them in the first half, and pick their moments... they're got a real chance of walking away with three points.

The danger for Alaves is going too cautious and suddenly finding themselves on the back foot when the crowd gets behind Oviedo. There is a momentum shift that happens in relegation battles when the home side scores first and the place goes mental. Alaves need to not let that happen.

The Verdict

This is one of those games you just cannot call. Two sides who have both looked shaky in defence all season. A home team desperate and a visiting team just trying to stay above the waterline. The vibes at the Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere on Sunday are going to be something else.

Look at the fixtures, this is the game of the weekend for me. I'm going big on this one being an absolute rollercoaster. Reckon we see goals from both sides before it's done. The season records basically demand it. Whether Oviedo can get the win they so desperately need... I genuinely don't know. But I'll be watching every second of it.

Back to the drawing board if this one goes quietly and nil-nil. But I'm not expecting that. Not for one second. You heard it here first.