Can Oldham Slow Down Salford's Top-Six Push? League Two Preview

Right. Saturday 18 April. Oldham Athletic versus Salford City. League Two. And honestly, if you're not excited about this one then I don't know what to tell you.

Look at the fixtures. This is exactly the kind of mid-to-late season clash that decides who's pushing on and who's just making up the numbers. Salford are sixth. Oldham are eleventh. On paper that sounds comfortable for the visitors. But football isn't played on paper, is it. It's played at Boundary Park, in front of fans who actually care, on a Saturday afternoon when everything feels like it matters a bit more than it probably should. And I love that.

Where Oldham Stand

Eleventh place. Now before you say anything, let me just remind you that eleventh in League Two is not a disaster. It's not where Oldham fans dreamed of being, sure, but it's steady. It's a platform. The numbers back that up too. Fifty-four goals scored across the season. That is not a team that is scared to have a go. Thirty-nine conceded. That's a goals-per-game ratio that suggests there is genuine quality in this side when they get going.

Thirty-nine goals against, actually... that's decent for a team in the bottom half. There's a defensive shape there worth respecting. They are not just a side that turns up and hopes. There's some organisation. Some grit. You can see it in the numbers.

The home crowd will be massive for Oldham here. Playing in front of your own fans against a Salford side with something to play for? That's a proper football occasion. Don't sleep on that factor.

Where Salford Stand

Sixth. Fifty-seven goals scored. Fifty conceded. And look, I will be honest with you, that goals-against number raises an eyebrow. Fifty goals let in is a lot for a side that wants to go up. You're looking at a team that will come and have a proper go, absolutely, but they can be got at. The goals scored column tells you they are positive, attacking, confident. The goals conceded column tells you the back door has been left open a few times this season.

This is not a nailed-on promotion side yet. Sixth is great. Fifty-seven goals is brilliant. But if you're letting in fifty at the same time, you're riding a bit of a knife edge, aren't you. One bad afternoon at the back and it unravels. Oldham, with fifty-four goals of their own, will fancy taking advantage of that.

The Goals Argument

Okay so let me break this down simply because the numbers are screaming at us here. Combined, these two sides have scored one hundred and eleven goals this season. ONE HUNDRED AND ELEVEN. They have also conceded eighty-nine between them. Mate. MATE. You are telling me this is going to be a cagey 0-0? No chance. No chance whatsoever.

This is a both teams to score game if I have ever seen one. I'm going big on this. BTTS is practically waving at us from the market. Salford score goals for fun. Oldham score goals for fun. Both defences have had their moments of generosity. Add in the pressure of a promotion race for one side and a point-to-prove mentality for the home side, and you've got the ingredients for a proper, open game of football.

You heard it here first... this goes over on goals. Don't @ me.

What Oldham Need To Do

Stay compact early. Let Salford come at them. Because Salford will come at them. That is what a sixth-place side with ambitions does on the road. If Oldham can absorb that early pressure and keep it tight for the first twenty minutes, the crowd gets nervous, Salford start forcing it, and suddenly those fifty goals conceded make a lot more sense. Oldham have the firepower, fifty-four goals says so, to hit on the counter and make this really uncomfortable for the visitors.

The worst thing Oldham could do is try to match Salford blow for blow from the first whistle. Be patient. Stay organised. And then... scenes.

What Salford Need To Do

Keep it tight at the back for once. I know, I know, easy to say. But if Salford can actually show some defensive discipline on the road here, they have more than enough quality going forward to nick this. Fifty-seven goals scored tells you the attackers know what they're doing. The issue is the fifty conceded tells you they can't always keep the other lot quiet.

If this becomes an end-to-end barnstormer, great for us watching, slightly worrying for Salford's top-six nerves. If they can make it tight and boring in the first half... they probably have the quality to unlock Oldham in the second.

Jay's Verdict

Honestly, I think this is a draw. And look, I know that's not the sexiest call in the world. But hear me out. Oldham are at home, they're decent, they've scored fifty-four goals. Salford are good but not unbeatable, and their defensive record suggests they can be caught. A point each feels about right for where both sides are in their seasons.

But I am absolutely, categorically not watching this for a 0-0. The xG... and yes I know what xG is and yes I know it's the kind of thing that sounds like someone cleared their throat mid-sentence... anyway, the expected goals stuff, the underlying numbers, the whole vibe of this fixture, it all points to goals. Multiple goals. Both teams on the scoresheet. Limbs at some point in the second half.

Both teams to score is my pick. Back to the drawing board if I'm wrong, obviously. As per usual.

Right. Saturday cannot come soon enough.