St. Johnstone v Kilmarnock bet builder tip
Scottish Premiership · Sun 2 Aug, 14:00
STJ
KILThe three legs cohere around Kilmarnock's stark home and away split, which the data shows creates vulnerability in Perth. A St. Johnstone win combined with over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring reflects the home side's edge whilst accounting for Kilmarnock's propensity to leak chances and play offensively on their travels.
- Illustrative return on £10
- £81.20
- Bookmaker-implied chance
- 12%
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Derived from combined odds (100 / price). Includes bookmaker margin.
Why these three legs fit together
The three legs cohere around Kilmarnock's stark home and away split, which the data shows creates vulnerability in Perth. A St. Johnstone win combined with over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring reflects the home side's edge whilst accounting for Kilmarnock's propensity to leak chances and play offensively on their travels.
Leg-by-leg breakdown
- 1Match Result
St. Johnstone to win
St. Johnstone are favoured by the model at 56.9% win probability, representing a meaningful 11.5 percentage point edge over the market's implied probability of 42.9% at Coral odds of 2.2. Kilmarnock's defensive vulnerability away from home is a critical factor, with 75% of their last ten away matches producing over 2.5 goals and a clean sheet rate of only 25% on the road compared to 62.5% at Rugby Park.
Bookmaker-implied chance47%2.15 - 2.38 - 2Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 Goals
Kilmarnock have conceded in 7 of their last 8 away matches, with 80% of their five most recent away trips going over 2.5 goals. St. Johnstone's attacking threat at McDiarmid Park, combined with Kilmarnock's stylistic approach of playing with risk away from home rather than defensive structure, creates the conditions for goals at both ends.
Bookmaker-implied chance56%1.80 - 3.00 - 3Both Teams to Score
Both Teams to Score - Yes
Kilmarnock's away record shows goals conceded in seven of eight recent road matches, indicating they will struggle defensively in Perth. St. Johnstone's home advantage and the visiting side's open attacking structure away from Rugby Park, where they prioritise playing rather than sitting deep, makes both teams scoring a likely outcome.
Bookmaker-implied chance60%1.66 - 1.66
Bet builder track record
Settled tips between 2026-04-16 and 2026-07-30. Tips with legs we cannot deterministically settle (Over/Under, BTTS) are treated as void. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Where to place this tip
FAQ
Is this tip guaranteed?
No. Bet builder tips are model-driven suggestions, not predictions of outcomes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Why these three legs for St. Johnstone vs Kilmarnock?
We combine match-result, totals and BTTS markets that fit a single coherent story about how we expect the match to play out, then surface the price and edge so you can decide for yourself.
How is the model edge calculated?
Edge is our model's combined win probability minus the market-implied probability across all three legs. Positive edge means the price looks generous relative to our model.
What is a risk bucket?
Shorter odds describe tighter prices, Long shot covers longer accas, and Model edge marks tips where our combined edge clears the threshold.
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