York City v Crawley Town bet builder tip
Carabao Cup · Mon 3 Aug, 19:30
YOR
CRTThe betbuilder combines York's home advantage with Crawley's poor recent form to support a home victory, whilst the goals market edge of 9.6 percentage points on Over 2.5 suggests this match will be more open than typical Carabao Cup first round fare. Both Teams to Score complements the total goals leg, as Crawley's attacking capability away from home combined with York's lack of established defensive solidity creates conditions for a multi-goal, two-sided contest.
- Illustrative return on £10
- £58.50
- Bookmaker-implied chance
- 17%
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Derived from combined odds (100 / price). Includes bookmaker margin.
Why these three legs fit together
The betbuilder combines York's home advantage with Crawley's poor recent form to support a home victory, whilst the goals market edge of 9.6 percentage points on Over 2.5 suggests this match will be more open than typical Carabao Cup first round fare. Both Teams to Score complements the total goals leg, as Crawley's attacking capability away from home combined with York's lack of established defensive solidity creates conditions for a multi-goal, two-sided contest.
Leg-by-leg breakdown
- 1Match Result
York City to win
York City are priced as clear market favourites at 1.61, though the article notes this is based partly on home advantage assumption rather than concrete form data. Crawley Town have won just two of their last ten games overall, with their last five showing no wins, three draws and two losses, demonstrating a team struggling for results.
Bookmaker-implied chance64%1.57 - 1.77 - 2Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 Goals
The model assigns a 68.4 per cent probability to Over 2.5 Goals against the market's implied 58.8 per cent, representing a substantial 9.6 percentage point edge. Crawley's away record shows a 40 per cent BTTS rate and 40 per cent over 2.5 rate, establishing a meaningful baseline for goal-heavy outcomes.
Bookmaker-implied chance59%1.70 - 2.75 - 3Both Teams to Score
Both Teams to Score - Yes
Crawley's away form shows they have scored 6 goals in their last ten away games whilst also conceding 7, indicating they remain capable of attacking contributions despite defensive vulnerabilities. With a 40 per cent BTTS rate recorded away from home, the pattern suggests both sides are likely to find the net in this early-season fixture.
Bookmaker-implied chance57%1.75 - 1.75
Bet builder track record
Settled tips between 2026-04-16 and 2026-07-04. Tips with legs we cannot deterministically settle (Over/Under, BTTS) are treated as void. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Where to place this tip
FAQ
Is this tip guaranteed?
No. Bet builder tips are model-driven suggestions, not predictions of outcomes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Why these three legs for York City vs Crawley Town?
We combine match-result, totals and BTTS markets that fit a single coherent story about how we expect the match to play out, then surface the price and edge so you can decide for yourself.
How is the model edge calculated?
Edge is our model's combined win probability minus the market-implied probability across all three legs. Positive edge means the price looks generous relative to our model.
What is a risk bucket?
Shorter odds describe tighter prices, Long shot covers longer accas, and Model edge marks tips where our combined edge clears the threshold.
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