Argentina and Croatia Are Shootout Royalty While Spain and Holland Keep Choking

Going first in a World Cup shootout has been a guaranteed way to lose in 2026. All four teams to strike first this summer have gone on to lose the shootout, a stark reversal of decades of data that found almost no advantage either way. That single stat sums up why the numbers behind penalty shootouts are worth revisiting just as the 2026 tournament reaches its business end.

BBC Sport and Opta have tracked every one of the 360 penalties taken across 39 World Cup shootouts since the format was introduced in 1982. With the quarter-finals now looming and more shootouts likely, the sample size is finally large enough to separate genuine patterns from folklore.

Why This Data Matters Right Now

This summer has already delivered oddities that make the historical data feel urgent rather than academic. The tournament has produced the first sudden-death shootouts since 1994, two separate shootouts with a joint-record five missed penalties, and only the second instance of a goalkeeper coming on as a substitute purely for the shootout.

A 44-year sample finally big enough to trust

Small-sample shootout trivia has always been unreliable. But 360 penalties across four decades gives genuine statistical weight to patterns around shot placement, kick order and which countries actually hold their nerve.

With several of the remaining sides in the draw carrying either a proud shootout history or a troubling one, this is not nostalgia. It is a evidence-based guide to who cracks when a match goes to spot-kicks.

Argentina and Croatia: The Shootout Aristocracy

Argentina are, by some distance, the most reliable shootout nation in World Cup history. They have won six of their seven shootouts, including the 2022 final against France in Qatar.

Messi and Modric, the only two ever-present kings of the spot-kick

Only two players in World Cup history have scored penalties in three different shootouts: Argentina's Lionel Messi and Croatia's Luka Modric. Both have a 100% shootout success rate, despite Messi converting only four of eight penalties from open play at World Cups, including two misses in 2026.

Croatia have a flawless four wins from four shootouts, built on a remarkable production line of goalkeeping heroics from one city.

Danijel Subasic saved four spot-kicks in Croatia's run to the 2018 final, and Dominik Livakovic matched that feat in Qatar in 2022. Both goalkeepers are from Zadar, Croatia's fifth-largest city, as is Modric.

• Subasic: 4 saves from 10 faced (2018)
• Livakovic: 4 saves from 8 faced (2022), including 3 in a single shootout
• Ricardo (Portugal): the best save percentage of any keeper, 75% from four faced

The Netherlands and Spain: A History of Choking

At the other end of the table sit two of Europe's traditional heavyweights. The Netherlands, beaten by Morocco in the last 32 this summer, now share the unwanted record of four World Cup shootout defeats with Spain.

Nine missed penalties between two footballing giants

Both nations have won only one of their five shootouts, and between them they have missed nine penalties. That is a damning record for two sides built on technical, controlled football, and it should worry anyone assessing their live tournament chances if a knockout match goes the distance.

England are the next most notorious under-performers, with eight misses and three shootout defeats, a mark also shared with Mexico, who have the worst individual scoring record of any nation at just 29% (two from seven).

By contrast, Egypt joined Belgium and South Korea as the only nations to have scored every World Cup penalty they have ever taken, after their last-32 win over Australia.

Pick a Corner: The Case Against Central Penalties

The single clearest lesson from four decades of data is simple: never go down the middle. Players who send their kick to their right have scored 73% of the time, and those going left have converted 71%. Central penalties succeed only 58% of the time.

The middle isn't actually saved more, it's just missed more

Counterintuitively, central penalties are not saved more often than those aimed at a corner, just 18% compared with 22% for side kicks. The problem is accuracy. A full 24% of central penalties miss the target entirely, including efforts that strike the woodwork, compared with just 7% of penalties aimed at either post.

For anyone assessing in-game markets on shot placement once a match reaches penalties, the data is unambiguous: a confident corner beats a clever chip through the middle almost every time.

Does Kick Order Really Matter?

Historically, going first in a shootout has been close to a coin flip. Of the 35 teams to take the first penalty before this year's tournament, 17 won (49%). That neutrality has been obliterated in 2026, where all four teams to strike first have lost.

The mysterious curse of the eighth kicker

Success rates barely move across the first three rounds of kicks, at 72%, 72% and 74% respectively. But the pattern breaks down sharply after that.

• 4th round takers: 60% success rate
• 5th round takers: rises to 67%
• Eighth kicker overall (the second taker in round four): just 58%, the worst of any recognised slot

The same eighth-kicker slump shows up in European Championship shootouts too, suggesting a genuine psychological effect rather than a statistical blip, likely the pressure of needing to keep a team alive before the potential decider. Only three World Cup shootouts have ever reached sudden death, including Paraguay's win over Germany this summer, with a 50% conversion rate once shootouts reach a sixth round per side.

Strikers, Keepers and the Anatomy of a Winning Shootout

Position matters almost as much as placement. Forwards convert 73% of their World Cup shootout penalties (from 112 attempts), ahead of midfielders on 69% (156 attempts) and defenders on 62% (92 attempts).

No keeper has ever taken one, and subs rarely change the story

No goalkeeper has ever stepped up to take a World Cup shootout penalty, partly because mavericks such as Jose Luis Chilavert, Rogerio Ceni and Hans-Jorg Butt were never involved in one, and no shootout has gone beyond six rounds per side. Left-footed takers now edge right-footed ones 71% to 68%, a reversal of the pattern before this World Cup.

Late substitutions brought on purely for the shootout remain rare and largely ineffective. Only seven outfield players have come on in the final five minutes of stoppage time and gone on to take a penalty, five of them since 2022, and just three scored. This summer, Paraguay's Fabian Balbuena had his effort saved by Germany's Manuel Neuer despite his side winning, while Egypt's Mahmoud Saber scored his in the last 32.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is it better to shoot first or second in a World Cup penalty shootout?
Historically there has been almost no difference, with the team taking the first penalty winning 49% of shootouts before 2026. This year has bucked that trend completely, with all four teams to go first losing the shootout.

Should penalty takers aim for the corner or the centre of the goal?
The data strongly favours the corners. Players aiming right score 73% of the time and those aiming left score 71%, compared with only 58% for central penalties, which are missed or hit the woodwork far more often.

Which country has the best World Cup shootout record?
Argentina lead the way, having won six of their seven World Cup shootouts, including the 2022 final against France. Croatia are unbeaten, winning all four of theirs.

Which teams have the worst World Cup shootout record?
The Netherlands and Spain share the worst record among major nations, each winning only one of five shootouts and missing nine penalties between them. England have lost three of their shootouts and missed eight penalties in total.

Who is the best penalty taker in World Cup shootout history?
Lionel Messi and Luka Modric are the only two players to have scored in three separate World Cup shootouts, both with a 100% conversion rate in shootouts specifically, despite more mixed records from the spot in open play.

Which goalkeeper has saved the most World Cup shootout penalties?
Croatia's Danijel Subasic and Dominik Livakovic have each saved four penalties in a single World Cup shootout, matching West Germany's Harald Schumacher and Argentina's Sergio Goycochea. Portugal's Ricardo has the best save percentage at 75%.

Does bringing on a substitute specifically for penalties work?
Rarely. Of the small number of outfield players brought on in the final minutes of extra time who went on to take a shootout penalty, only three out of seven have scored, suggesting late substitutions offer little guaranteed benefit.

Why is the eighth penalty taker considered a weak spot?
Data shows the eighth kicker overall, the second taker in the fourth round, converts only 58% of penalties, the lowest of any recognised position outside sudden death. The same pattern appears in European Championship shootouts, pointing to a genuine pressure effect rather than coincidence.