Ancelotti's Neymar Dilemma Exposes Brazil's Biggest World Cup Gamble

Carlo Ancelotti faces the most politically charged selection decision in Brazilian football history after including Neymar Jr in his preliminary 55-man World Cup 2026 squad despite the forward's two-year absence from international football.

The 34-year-old Santos striker hasn't played for Brazil since rupturing his ACL in October 2023, yet remains the Seleção's all-time leading scorer with 79 goals. His recent return has yielded just six goals in 13 games against lower-tier opposition, raising serious questions about his readiness for football's biggest stage.

The Case Against Neymar: Why Form and Fitness Should Trump Reputation

Neymar's comeback statistics tell a damning story. Since returning from his ACL rupture, he's managed six goals and three assists in 13 appearances for Santos – respectable numbers until you examine the opposition.

The Quality Question

South American football expert Tim Vickery highlighted the glaring issue on talkSPORT's Trans Euro Express podcast:

All these matches, they're all very much against Nat Mills and Bobbie. Even if he does really shine, it's hard to look at these kind of opponents and say, well, yeah, this proves that he can do some things at a level that he hasn't been able to do since he was injured in October of 2023.

The most telling example came in Santos' midweek clash against Paraguayan side Recoleta, described by Vickery as "practically an amateur side". Despite the match being moved to the Brazilian border with a stadium full of Santos fans, Neymar's team could only manage a 1-1 draw.

Physical Limitations Remain Evident

Those watching Neymar closely report a player operating well below his peak powers:

• Lacks the explosive acceleration that once terrorised defenders
• Avoids physical duels more noticeably than before his injury
• Completes fewer dribbles per game than at any point in his career
• Has played just two matches lasting 90 minutes since his return

For a player who hasn't faced top-level opposition in over two years, the step up to World Cup intensity represents an enormous risk.

Political Pressure and the Home World Cup Factor

The campaign to include Neymar has transcended football, with Brazilian politicians now petitioning the FA to This unprecedented political interference places Ancelotti in an impossible position.

The Ancelotti Calculation

Vickery believes the Italian manager would prefer to avoid the circus entirely:

I very much suspect, and it is only a suspicion, that Ancelotti would rather do without all of this circus, but he's a very, very political figure.

Having successfully navigated the political minefields at AC Milan under Silvio Berlusconi and Real Madrid under Florentino Pérez, Ancelotti understands the art of compromise. But this decision carries unique weight.

The Messi Factor

Even Lionel Messi has weighed in, backing his former Barcelona teammate's inclusion. Speaking on Lo del Pollo show, the Argentine stated:

We want the best players to be there at the World Cup and Neymar, no matter his form, will always be one of them. It would be wonderful to see him at the World Cup because of what he means to Brazil and to football.

Such endorsements from football royalty only intensify the pressure on Ancelotti to find room for Neymar in his final 26.

What Neymar's Inclusion Would Mean for Brazil's Tournament Chances

Should Ancelotti buckle to public pressure, Brazil's World Cup campaign could be defined by this single decision. The implications extend far beyond sentiment.

Tactical Compromises

Including an unfit Neymar forces several uncomfortable adjustments:

• Brazil would likely need to play a more protective system to compensate for his defensive limitations
• The high-pressing game Ancelotti has implemented becomes harder to execute with a passenger
• Squad harmony could suffer if younger, fitter players lose their place to accommodate a legend
• The medical staff face enormous pressure to keep a fragile player fit through a gruelling tournament

The Betting Implications

For those analysing Brazil's tournament odds, Neymar's inclusion represents a significant variable. The Seleção enter as one of the favourites, but an unfit talisman could prove their undoing.

History shows that sentiment-based selections rarely end well at major tournaments. From England's rushed inclusion of Wayne Rooney in 2006 to Argentina's gamble on Diego Maradona in 1994, forcing unfit stars into World Cup squads typically backfires.

Brazil's attack already boasts Vinícius Júnior, Rodrygo, and Raphinha – players operating at elite level week in, week out. Adding a diminished Neymar to that mix risks disrupting a functioning unit for minimal gain.

What Happens Next

Ancelotti has until May 18 to trim his preliminary squad to the final 26. Neymar has just two more games – both against the same opponent in cup and league action – to prove his worth. Neither fixture will provide the level of examination required to assess World Cup readiness.

The smart money suggests Ancelotti will include Neymar, not because it's the right football decision, but because the political cost of exclusion has become too high. For Brazil's World Cup hopes, that compromise could prove costly when the tournament reaches its crucial stages and sentiment gives way to the harsh realities of elite competition.

Frequently Asked Questions

Will Neymar play in the 2026 World Cup?
Neymar has been included in Brazil's preliminary 55-man squad, but manager Carlo Ancelotti must decide by May 18 whether to include him in the final 26. His inclusion looks likely due to political pressure, despite concerns over his fitness and form since returning from an ACL injury in October 2023.

How many goals has Neymar scored for Brazil?
Neymar is Brazil's all-time leading scorer with 79 international goals. He surpassed Pelé's long-standing record of 77 goals but hasn't added to his tally since rupturing his ACL in October 2023 during his last appearance for the national team.

When did Neymar last play for Brazil?
Neymar last played for Brazil in October 2023, when he suffered an ACL rupture during a World Cup qualifier. He has been absent from international football for over two years while recovering from the injury and regaining match fitness with Santos.

Is Neymar fit enough for the World Cup?
Neymar's fitness remains questionable after managing just 13 appearances for Santos since his return, scoring six goals against lower-tier opposition. He has completed only two full 90-minute matches and observers note he lacks the explosive pace and physical robustness that defined his peak years.

What has Lionel Messi said about Neymar's World Cup chances?
Lionel Messi has publicly backed Neymar's inclusion in Brazil's World Cup squad, stating "Neymar, no matter his form, will always be one of the best players" and that it would be "wonderful to see him at the World Cup". Messi's endorsement adds to the mounting pressure on Ancelotti to select his former Barcelona teammate.