Almería vs Málaga Preview: Second Hosts Fourth in the Andalusian Derby That Could Define La Liga 2's Top Six

Last updated: Friday 17 April 2026. Right, we are two days out from one of the most mouth-watering fixtures in the La Liga 2 calendar and honestly... the timing of this one could not be better. Almería vs Málaga. Sunday 19 April. An Andalusian derby with genuine promotion implications. If this one does not get you going then I genuinely do not know what will.

Where Things Stand

Look at the fixtures and look at the table. Almería are sitting second. Málaga are fourth. Both sides have goals in them, both sides have shown they can defend, and both sides will be absolutely desperate for the three points here. This is the kind of game that February feels like it was building towards.

Almería have scored 67 goals and conceded 52 this season. Mate, that is a team that plays with the handbrake off. They are exciting, they go forward, and yes, they leave gaps. You are going to get something watching them. Málaga on the other hand look a bit more composed at the back. 58 goals scored, 41 conceded. Better defensive numbers than their hosts. That gap of eleven goals conceded between these two sides is not nothing.

Honestly, on paper this matchup could not set up more nicely for an entertaining ninety minutes. A home side who love to attack facing a travelling side who are harder to beat than their league position might suggest. Scenes incoming.

The Numbers Tell a Story... And Even I Can See It

I actually looked at the numbers for once and here is what jumped out at me. Almería are averaging over a goal a game conceded across the whole season. 52 goals against is not a disaster, but it tells you they are not a back-five-and-grind outfit. They want to outscore you. That is fun. That is also a vulnerability that a Málaga side with 58 goals in them will absolutely be looking to exploit on the road.

Málaga's defensive record is genuinely impressive for a side pushing for promotion. 41 goals conceded is the kind of number that suggests they are organised, they are disciplined, and they do not give much away cheaply. If you told me Málaga had the best defensive record in the top four I would not be shocked at all. Don't @ me on that one.

Now, someone on the analytics side of things will probably fire up the xG... whatever that is supposed to tell us exactly... and point to all sorts of underlying numbers. I prefer to just watch the games, but even squinting at the raw totals here, you can see two teams with different identities about to crash into each other. Almería want to play. Málaga want to control. Something has to give.

Squad News and Availability

Look, the data sheet is light on confirmed injury news at this stage and I am not going to make things up. What I will say is that both clubs will have had last weekend's matches in the legs, so fatigue and minor knocks will be a real factor in whoever takes the field on Sunday. Keep an eye on both clubs' official channels on Saturday for any late squad announcements. As soon as anything confirmed drops I will be all over it.

What we do know is that both managers will be picking from squads that have been active all season. With a derby this big, neither side will be rotating for the sake of it. You would expect close to full strength from both dugouts. This is a six-pointer in the wider context of where both clubs want to finish.

The Betting Angle: Jay's Sunday Special

Right. This is the bit you have been waiting for. Let me be upfront. My acca hit rate is... well. Back to the drawing board is basically my catchphrase at this point. But we keep going. That is the beauty of football. That is the beauty of a fiver on a five-fold.

For this one specifically, I am going big on this... Both Teams to Score. You heard it here first. Almería's defensive numbers suggest they are going to give Málaga something to aim at. Málaga's attacking numbers, 58 goals across the season, suggest they absolutely have the quality to take advantage. And Almería with 67 goals at the other end are not going to suddenly shut up shop in a derby. BTTS feels like it is practically waving at you from the market.

Near-final odds are hovering around the evens mark for BTTS yes, which I think is decent value given what the season stats are telling us. Not generous, but fair. For the result market, Almería's home advantage and league position makes them slight favourites, which feels about right to me. Málaga at the prices available as away winners is interesting if you trust their defensive solidity to keep things tight and nick one on the break.

Correct score punt for the chaos merchants among us? I am looking at 2-1 to Almería. Goals, drama, home side edges it. The vibes say so. The madness of derby football says so. Reckon that is somewhere around 7/1 to 8/1 depending on your bookmaker. Small stake, big entertainment. That is what Sunday football is for.

The full Saturday and Sunday acca will be up on the site before kick-off. Whether it lands or not... well. You know how this goes. Trust the process.

The Verdict

Almería host Málaga in a fixture that matters. Second versus fourth in La Liga 2. The home side have the firepower but the away side look tighter at the back. If Almería's attack clicks early, this could be a big home win. If Málaga stay disciplined and hit on the counter, they are more than capable of leaving Almería with nothing.

I reckon goals. I reckon noise. I reckon this is the derby of the weekend across any league in Europe, not just La Liga 2. Get the plans sorted for Sunday afternoon. You will not want to miss this one.