Last updated: 9 May 2026

Right, here we go. Two days out from Monday's 5pm kick-off in Kraków and I've been staring at this one long enough to have an opinion. Cracovia vs Radomiak Radom. Polish Ekstraklasa. Not the glamour fixture of the season but honestly, mate, some of the best value in football hides in games exactly like this one. Let me walk you through what I've got.

Where Both Teams Are in the Table

Look, I have to be upfront with you. The data I've got for most of this league table doesn't tell me exactly which team ID belongs to which club. What I can tell you is the shape of where things stand in the Ekstraklasa with a few games to go. The top of the table has a team on 55 points from 31 games, six clear of second place on 49. Below that it gets absolutely congested, with several sides bunched between 39 and 47 points. That kind of end-of-season squeeze means motivation is all over the place, which matters when you're trying to call a result.

The one entry in the standings with actual home and away splits, plus a recent form string, shows a record of DWLLW in the last five. Twelve wins, four draws, twelve losses at home. Four wins, two draws, eight losses away. That's a club that does its best work on its own turf and struggles on the road. Whether that's Cracovia or Radomiak I can't say with certainty from what's in front of me, but the broader picture is clear enough. Cracovia are the home side and the bookmakers have installed them as favourites. That much I can work with.

What the Odds Are Telling Us

Cracovia are priced around 1.90 to 2.02 depending on where you look. Bet365 have them at 1.90, Unibet are a touch more generous at 2.02. The draw is 3.30 across most books. Radomiak to win away from home? That's out at 3.55 to 3.90. Bet365 are the outliers on the away price at 3.90, which is interesting.

Now. Our signal on this match is an away win for Radomiak at 3.90 with bet365. The model gives them a 29.9% chance of winning. The implied probability from that 3.90 price is about 25.6%. So there's roughly a 4.3% edge there according to the numbers. Confidence is rated at 30 out of 100, which... yeah. That's not exactly me banging the table, is it. I'll come back to this.

Draw no bet if you fancy Cracovia is available at 1.40, which tells you the books think the home side win here more often than not. Radomiak DNB is 2.75. File that away.

The Goals Picture

This is where it gets interesting and I actually looked at the numbers for once, properly, not just squinting at them. BTTS is priced at 1.75 yes and 2.00 no on bet365. The model reckons there's a 56% chance both teams score. That's not a screaming value bet at 1.75 but it's not nothing either. I like BTTS in games where the away side has a bit of quality and nothing to lose. That description could fit Radomiak here.

The half-time goals markets are basically shouting at you that this is going to be a slow starter. Over 0.5 goals in the first half is 1.37 on Unibet. Under 1.5 first half goals is 1.37 as well. The market is very clearly expecting a low-scoring opening 45 minutes, with the action coming in the second half. Second half BTTS is 3.40 if that tickles you, which is actually a fun little punt for the correct score fans among us.

Speaking of correct scores, Unibet have 1-1 at 5.25, which is the shortest correct score on the board. That tells its own story. 1-0 to Cracovia is 6.25. 0-1 to Radomiak is 7.50. 2-1 to Cracovia is 7.00. If I had to pick one correct score for a little flutter... actually, hold that thought, I'll come back to it in the tips.

Squad News

Honestly, I have to be straight with you here. The injuries list in the data I've got is completely empty. No confirmed absences on either side as of now. That's either a clean bill of health for both squads two days out, or the information just hasn't filtered through yet. Keep an eye on both clubs' social channels on the day because in a game as tight as this one, a key absence could shift the whole thing.

The Vibe Check

Look at the fixtures. End of season. Ekstraklasa. Monday evening. What's the motivation here? If Cracovia have something to play for, home advantage matters a lot more. If this is a dead rubber for the home side, Radomiak might fancy their chances of nicking something. The compressed nature of that mid-table tells me these games still matter for a lot of clubs in terms of final positioning and pride. I'm not writing either side off.

Radomiak as away underdogs at nearly 4/1 is the kind of price that sounds silly until it lands and then suddenly you're the oracle. The model says there's value there. My gut says Cracovia win this at home. Those two things can both be true and it's why football is brilliant.

Jay's Tips

Right. I'm going big on this... well, medium. It's a Monday night Polish Ekstraklasa game, let's not get carried away.

Main tip: BTTS Yes at 1.75 (bet365). The model likes it at 56%. The odds suggest about 57% implied probability so it's not screaming value but in terms of what I think actually happens in this game, I reckon both sides find the net. That's my most confident call here.

Cheeky correct score punt: 1-1 at 5.25 (Unibet). It's the shortest correct score for a reason. Both teams score, nobody dominant enough to pull clear. Fiver on it. Don't @ me.

The signal pick: Radomiak away win at 3.90 (bet365). Low confidence, 30 out of 100, and I respect that the model is telling me not to go mad. But that edge exists and 3.90 for a team that can clearly travel and cause problems? If you want to go small, go small. You heard it here first if it lands.

Back to the drawing board if it doesn't. As always. Good luck Monday.