Middlesbrough vs Portsmouth: Match Preview & Team News

Right, Saturday afternoon at the Riverside Stadium and this one is about as straightforward as Championship fixtures get on paper. Middlesbrough, third in the table, hosting Portsmouth, who are sitting in 21st and staring relegation in the face. Robert Owen Edwards has his side pushing for promotion. John Michael Lewis Mousinho is desperately trying to keep Pompey in the division. The vibes could not be more different going into this one. But football, mate... football has a way of making you look silly the moment you get too comfortable.

The Table Tells the Story

Look at the fixtures, look at the table, and the gap between these two sides is enormous. Middlesbrough have 72 points from 41 matches. That is a record of 20 wins, 12 draws and 9 losses with a goal difference of plus 21. Portsmouth, on the other hand, have managed just 42 points from 40 games. Ten wins, 12 draws and 18 losses. A goal difference of minus 17. We are talking about two clubs at completely opposite ends of this division right now.

Middlesbrough at Home: A Proper Fortress... Sort Of

Honestly, the Riverside is not quite the fortress you would want it to be when you are pushing for automatic promotion. Boro's home record reads 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses from 20 home matches this season. They have scored 28 goals at home and conceded 16. That is decent. But four home defeats tells you they are not completely impenetrable. The good news for Boro fans is that Portsmouth travelling to anyone right now is not exactly a recipe for confidence. Pompey's away form is grim reading. Four wins, 7 draws and 9 losses on the road. They have scored just 19 goals away from home this season and conceded 35. That is an average of nearly two goals conceded every away game. Don't @ me when I say this looks like a very winnable afternoon for the hosts.

Recent Form: Nobody is Flying Right Now

Here is something interesting though. Look at the recent form for both sides and neither of them has been setting the world alight. Middlesbrough's last five reads D, L, D, D, L. That is two defeats and three draws. No wins in their last five. For a side pushing for promotion, that is a wobble you do not want. Portsmouth's last five is D, D, L, L, L. Three defeats on the spin going into this one. Trust the process... said absolutely nobody in the Portsmouth dressing room. The question is whether Boro can shake off their own poor run and get back to winning ways against a Pompey side that is clearly struggling. You would reckon so, but the recent form gives you a tiny reason to pause.

Set Pieces Could Be Decisive

I actually looked at the numbers for once and there is something here worth flagging. Middlesbrough are averaging 11 corners per game this season. Eleven. That is an absolutely massive number, mate. And Remove the claim entirely. The sentence should be rewritten to reference only verified data, e.g.: 'Portsmouth are coming to the Riverside where Boro absolutely pepper opponents with set piece opportunities, averaging 11 corners per game.' but we are talking about them as an away side here, so they are coming to the Riverside where Boro absolutely pepper opponents with set piece opportunities. If you are a Portsmouth defender, the thought of dealing with that volume of delivery into the box is not a pleasant one. Scenes waiting to happen from dead ball situations.

The Odds and the Signal

The market has landed with Middlesbrough as clear favourites and honestly, looking at everything we have just been through, that makes complete sense. The odds on a Boro win are sitting at 1.59 on Betfair Exchange. Portsmouth at 6.4 to nick it away from home. The draw is priced around 4.3. Given the gap in quality, the away record Portsmouth are carrying and the sheer volume of set piece threat Boro bring, the market has this about right. The one caveat, and it is worth saying, is that Boro's recent run of DLDDL is not the form of a team ready to steamroll anyone. Portsmouth might park the bus and make it a long afternoon. But the talent gap and the desperation from both sides... one wants promotion, one is fighting relegation... usually produces an entertaining game with goals. You heard it here first.

Jay's Verdict

Right, here is where I land on this one. Middlesbrough should win this football match. They have the better squad, the better position, the home advantage and a Portsmouth side coming to the Riverside having lost three on the bounce and conceding goals for fun away from home. Boro scoring 62 goals in 41 matches tells you they can hurt you. Portsmouth have shipped 57 in 40 matches. The maths is not kind to Pompey here. I'm going big on this... Middlesbrough to win and both teams to score as a little side bet for the acca merchants among you. Because while Portsmouth are struggling badly, they have managed 10 wins this season and 40 goals. They will not just lie down. Robert Owen Edwards needs his side to rediscover their winning form after that DLDDL run, and a home game against the 21st placed side feels like exactly the right time to do it. Back to the drawing board if it goes wrong, but everything points to a Boro win at the Riverside on Saturday afternoon.