Why value matters

Results are noisy; prices are information.

If your probability estimate for an outcome is higher than the bookmaker’s implied probability, the bet can be +EV.

Over many trials, +EV is what separates discipline from luck.

Step‑by‑step framework

  1. Choose one market (e.g., 1X2 or Over/Under) and one league. Specialise before you diversify.
  2. Build a baseline probability from simple indicators: recent goal difference, shots on target, xG trend, home/away strength, rest days, and injuries/suspensions.
  3. Translate to fair odds (Fair = 1 / probability).
  4. Shop lines and only bet when BookOdds ≥ FairOdds × (1 + small cushion) to cover uncertainty.
  5. Use level stakes (1 unit) for your first 100 bets.
  6. Log outcomes and revisit your cushions and assumptions.

Tiny example You estimate Over 2.5 at 52% → Fair 1.92. If the best book price is 2.05, EV ≈ (1.92 / 2.05) − 1 = −6.3% (no bet). If 2.20 appears, EV ≈ (1.92 / 2.20) − 1 = −12.7%? Careful—swap order: EV = (Book / Fair) − 1 when comparing price vs fair payout. Better: Edge = (BookOdds / FairOdds) − 1. With 2.20 vs 1.92 → Edge ≈ +14.6% (consider a bet).

Common pitfalls

  • Overreacting to 1–2 matches. Use rolling 5–10 game indicators.
  • Betting without line shopping. You donate EV by taking worse prices.
  • Inflating probabilities to justify a bet. If in doubt, pass.

KPIs to track

  • % of bets with a positive pre‑bet edge by your model.
  • Closing Line Value (CLV): your average odds vs closing odds. Beating the close is a strong signal your pricing is reasonable.

Related guides: Bankroll & Staking · Line Shopping · Over/Under Poisson · DNB/Double Chance