Why Poisson? Football goals are low‑frequency events; a Poisson assumption is a lightweight way to model total goals. It won’t be perfect, but it gives structure.

Inputs (keep it simple)

  • Team A attack strength & Team B defence weakness (recent xG for/against)
  • Home/away adjustments
  • Injuries/suspensions to key attackers/defenders
  • Pace & style (pressing vs low block)

Steps

  1. Estimate expected goals (λA, λB).
  2. The total goals distribution is approximated by Poisson with mean λT = λA + λB.
  3. Compute P(Total ≥ 3) for Over 2.5 (use a Poisson CDF).
  4. Convert to fair odds and compare with market. Bet only with a cushion.

Practical notes

  • Be wary of derbies, weather extremes, or squad rotation that your λ doesn’t capture.
  • Track your estimates vs market closes to calibrate.

Risk controls

  • Stick to one line (e.g., Over/Under 2.5) for your first 50 bets.
  • Avoid combining with other legs until you have a measured edge.

Related guides: Value Betting · Line Shopping · Bankroll & Staking