Why bankroll comes first

Edges are small and variance is real. Your first job is survival.

Define a bankroll (e.g., £1,000) that you can afford to lose, and pick a unit size (0.5–1% = £5–£10). Consistency beats bravado.

Staking options

• Level stakes (recommended for beginners): same stake each time. Clear, stable, great for evaluating EV.
• Fractional‑Kelly (e.g., 25–50% Kelly): stake = fraction × [(bp − q)/b], where b = odds−1, p = win probability, q = 1−p. Only consider after you can estimate probabilities reasonably.
• Avoid progressive systems (Martingale, Fibonacci): they magnify losses and risk ruin.

Practical rules

• Cap single‑bet stake at 1 unit until you have 200+ recorded bets and clear CLV.
• Consider a stop‑loss per week (e.g., −5 units) and a max exposure per day (e.g., 3–5 bets).
• Recalculate unit size only after material bankroll changes (e.g., ±25%).

Mindset You’re not trying to be right every match; you’re trying to be priced right over time. Calm, boring staking wins.

Related guides: Value Betting · Line Shopping · DNB/Double Chance